Top 5 FPL Gameweek 10 Differentials Under 10% Owned

Which Premier League forward has had more big chances than Erling Haaland this season?

Everton’s Thierno Barry leads the league with 17, costs just £5.6m and faces Coventry at home in Gameweek 10. He’s one of five FPL differentials currently owned by fewer than 10% of managers, alongside a Liverpool creator and two defenders with several routes to points.

The selection rules are simple:

• Three attackers: midfielders or forwards.
• Two defensive players: goalkeepers or defenders.
• All five players must be under 10% owned at the time of writing.

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1. Thierno Barry – Everton vs Coventry (H)

£5.6m | 7.5% owned | 4.5 predicted points

Four goals and 39 FPL points in nine games is already a useful return for a budget forward. What makes Barry stand out ahead of Coventry’s visit is how much better it could have been!

He’s had 17 big chances, the most in the league, and 29 of his 30 shots have come from inside the box. Only Haaland betters Barry for total shots (34 to 30), shots on target (16 to 13), shots in the box (33 to 29) and expected goals (7.67 to 7.61).

The per-90 comparison, as shown in the Opta Comparison tool, puts the price difference into perspective.

Barry averages 0.97 xG per 90 to Haaland’s 0.92, yet the City forward has scored 1.01 goals per 90 to Barry’s 0.47. FPL’s most expensive player is finishing his chances at a much higher rate, but £5.6m buys you a forward getting opportunities of comparable quality and frequency.

2. Florian Wirtz – Liverpool vs Crystal Palace (A)

£7.2m | 5.1% owned | 5.1 predicted points

Wirtz heads this shortlist for predicted points ahead of Liverpool’s trip to Selhurst Park.

His four FPL assists put him joint-third in the league, and only Pascal Groß (24) has created more chances than his 22. Three of those assists have come in Liverpool’s last five matches, when Wirtz has become the player most likely to supply the final pass.

Over that five-game spell as shown in the Match Centre feature, Wirtz created 16 chances, ten more than his nearest Liverpool team-mate, Cody Gakpo.

He also ranked second for xG (1.0), behind only Alexander Isak (1.8). For managers weighing up a £7.2m midfield slot, there’s appeal in a player who can both supply Isak and get on the end of chances himself.

3. Rayan – Bournemouth vs Ipswich (A)

£6.3m | 2.2% owned | 4.7 predicted points

Marcus Tavernier has five goals and Evanilson has four, so it’s easy to overlook their Bournemouth team-mate with just one. Yet ahead of the trip to Ipswich, Rayan leads the Cherries for shots (27), shots in the box (20), open-play shots (23) and big chances (nine). He’s also hit the target ten times, second only to Tavernier’s 13 as shown from data from the Opta Stats Sandbox.

The contrast with Tavernier is particularly striking. Just 0.06 xG separates them over nine games, with Rayan on 3.36 and Tavernier on 3.42, yet there’s a four-goal gap in their returns. At £0.3m less than Tavernier and just 2.2% owned, Rayan is the pick for managers willing to back those chances before the goals follow.

4. Luka Vušković – Brighton vs Brentford (H)

£5.2m | 7.3% owned | 4.3 predicted points

Vušković goes into Brighton’s home game against Brentford with 58 FPL points and six clean sheets in nine appearances.

There’s a longer-term reason to buy him, too. Brighton are projected to keep 2.4 clean sheets from Gameweeks 10 to 15, second only to Arsenal’s 2.8. View the clean-sheet projections in Predicted Points & Stats.

The extra £0.2m above the £5.0m defender bracket buys a genuine threat in the opposition box. Vušković has taken 15 shots, 11 of them inside the area, and had four big chances. He’s already scored a header and registered an FPL assist. Add 85 defensive contributions and there’s still a route to points on the days Brighton concede.

5. António Silva – Bournemouth vs Ipswich (A)

£5.0m | 2.4% owned | 4.7 predicted points

Bournemouth rank fifth for defensive fixtures across Gameweeks 10–14. They start at Ipswich, then host Nottingham Forest, visit Fulham and finish with back-to-back home games against Brighton and Hull.

For managers buying a defender to start over several weeks, that final fixture is a good reason to look beyond the immediate appeal of Ipswich. See Bournemouth’s defensive schedule in the Fixture Planner.

Silva has played all 810 minutes and ranks seventh among defenders for defensive contributions. His 93 DEFCON actions work out at 10.3 per game, just above the ten a defender needs in a single match to earn two extra FPL points. That helps explain why he’s only one point behind Bournemouth team-mate James Hill (37 to 38), despite costing £0.5m less.

There’s some untapped goal threat, too. All six of Silva’s shots have come from inside the box, including three big chances. He’s yet to score from 1.50 xG, but with three clean sheets and three bonus points already, owners have had other ways to profit.

Which FPL Gameweek 10 differential should you pick?

Thierno Barry is our pick if you need a forward. At £5.6m, he leads the league with 17 big chances and faces Coventry at home.

In midfield, Florian Wirtz has the highest projection of the five at 5.1 points. If you want a bolder punt, Rayan is owned by just 2.2% of managers and leads Bournemouth for shots in the box ahead of their trip to Ipswich.

In defence, Luka Vušković is worth the extra £0.2m if your budget stretches to it. He’s already had four big chances, and only Arsenal are projected to keep more clean sheets than Brighton over the next six Gameweeks. If £5.0m is your limit, António Silva offers a strong alternative. He averages 10.3 defensive contributions per game and starts a favourable run away to Ipswich.

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