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Double Gameweek 29: Forest & West Ham

Fantasy Football Fix 22 March 2023

West Ham and Forest both have a double in gameweek 29 and in this blog their assets are analysed over the last six gameweeks to determine if the best options. The ownership of players from these teams is quite low and they might provide the differentials needed for a surge up the mini-leagues. West Ham have played one game less than Forest over the aforementioned period due to their blank in gameweek 28.

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Benrahma tops the Stats Sandbox for xFPL (22.48) over the last six gameweeks with B. Johnson (19.94) in second. The Algeria international tops the table for shots (15) and shots on target (six) while only Bowen and Gibbs-White (nine each) have attempted more assists than his eight. Bowen's numbers have been disappointing, the winger has registered an 'Expected Goals' (xG) figure of just 0.68 from 11 shots and has landed just two efforts on target. He appears to have taken on a more creative role with his 'Expected Assists' (xA) (1.31) the highest in the comparison. Ings' numbers are interesting, despite playing just 301 minutes the forward has registered a table-topping 1.83 xG from just six shots and has registered three 'big chances'. B. Johnson tops the table for FPL points (23) and his numbers are compared with Ings as shown in the image below using the Fix Heatmaps feature.

Ings vs B. Johnson

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Despite Ings playing just 303 minutes compared Johnson's 513, the West Ham forward is ahead for xG (1.83 vs 1.12) despite taking fewer shots (six vs 11). The latter has attempted more shots in the box (six vs nine) as well but the xG numbers indicate that Ings is getting better quality chances. B. Johnson is ahead in terms of creativity with five attempted assists to Ings' one but the xA numbers (0.10 vs 0.16) show that there is not much in it. Ings appears to be the superior FPL asset when he does get the minutes.

Who has the better fixtures?

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As the above image from our Fixture Planner feature shows, West Ham are ranked third for Fixture Difficulty over the next four gameweeks with Forest in fourth. The Hammers arguably have the better fixtures with the game against Arsenal, which is at the London Stadium, their only fixture against a traditional 'top-six' side. Forest on the other hand host Man. Utd in gameweek 31 and travel to Anfield in 32 which would mean that any investment in Forest assets is likely to be more short-term. West Ham are also likely to have a double in either gameweek 34 or 37.

On the basis of the above analysis, Ings and Benrahma look to be great differential options from West Ham while Gibbs-White and B. Johnson are the players to own from Forest.

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