Erling Haaland (£15.5m) is comfortably the most expensive forward in FPL, but that has not stopped almost 75% of managers from selecting him.
The Norwegian sits £6.5m above Alexander Isak (£9.0m), while several cheaper forwards appear to be going under the radar ahead of Gameweek 1.
Using underlying Opta statistics, expected FPL points and early projections, we identify the best premium forwards for the start of the 2026/27 FPL season.
Erling Haaland was last season’s highest-scoring forward with 239 FPL points. He also led all forwards in the Opta Stats Sandbox for Expected FPL Points (xFPL), recording 236.52.
The Norwegian ranked first for goals (27), shots (126), shots on target (59), Expected Goals (xG, 27.68) and big chances (51), demonstrating why he is the most expensive player in FPL.
Igor Thiago ranked second for Expected FPL Points (201.57), with Ollie Watkins (178.28) some way behind. João Pedro recorded 167.60 xFPL despite playing the fewest minutes (2,674) of the quartet.
Alexander Isak’s first season at Liverpool was disrupted by injuries, limiting the Swedish international to just 703 minutes and three goals.
His compatriot Viktor Gyökeres also had limited game time (2,230 minutes) but still scored 14 goals, with only four premium forwards finding the net more often.
As the image above from our Predicted Lineups feature shows, doubts remain over Gyökeres’ starting role. The Swedish international is currently rated at under 50% to start against Coventry in Gameweek 1.
xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA), which combine to form expected FPL involvements (xG + xA = xI), along with expected clean sheets (xCS). These values are based on underlying statistics — for example, shot type and location determine the probability of scoring, which contributes to xG. xFPL then combines these metrics, factoring in appearance and bonus points to produce an overall expected FPL point score.
There are currently just 10 FPL forwards priced between £7.0m and £15.5m, with Hugo Ekitiké’s injury narrowing the pool further. Omar Marmoush, Alexander Isak and Kai Havertz also played fewer than 1,000 minutes last season, making their data less reliable.
Erling Haaland has been excluded because his numbers place him in a league of his own compared with the other premium forwards.
Using the Fix Comparison Matrix, we compare the top five premium forwards who played more than 1,000 minutes last season. Per-90 averages are used to account for differences in playing time.
João Pedro leads the comparison for FPL points per game (5.1) and also offers strong creative potential. The Brazilian ranks first for FPL assists (0.3) and attempted assists (0.8), although he sits third for both big chances (0.7) and xG (0.4).
Ollie Watkins recorded the joint-highest number of shots (2.2) and ranked second for both big chances (0.9) and xG (0.5).
However, Igor Thiago’s numbers stand out most. The Brazilian leads the comparison for goals (0.6), shots (2.2), shots in the box (2.1), big chances (1.1) and xG (0.6). Unlike the other four options, he is also his team’s designated penalty-taker.
Neither Viktor Gyökeres nor Benjamin Šeško produced particularly convincing numbers last season. Both also carry game-time risks, making them difficult to recommend for the start of the campaign.
Erling Haaland is significantly ahead of the other premium forwards, with 37.9 projected points over the opening six Gameweeks. Only Bruno Fernandes (38.9) is projected to score more across all positions.
As the image above from our Player Points Projections feature shows, Ollie Watkins is currently selected by fewer than 15% of FPL managers. However, the England international is projected to outscore the more popular Igor Thiago (26.9) and João Pedro (25.2) over the first six Gameweeks.
Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak complete the top six. Isak’s projection has been particularly affected by his injury-hit campaign last season, but if he can rediscover his fitness and form under new manager Andoni Iraola, he could prove excellent value at £9.0m.
Erling Haaland’s underlying numbers from last season demonstrate why he is the most popular player in FPL and comfortably the standout premium forward.
Beyond the Norwegian, four other options appeal: Igor Thiago, Ollie Watkins, Alexander Isak and João Pedro.
Thiago and Watkins are established picks who remain under the same managers as last season. There is greater uncertainty surrounding Isak and João Pedro as they adapt to life under Andoni Iraola and Xabi Alonso respectively.
Thiago’s penalty-taking duties give him an advantage over the other alternatives, while João Pedro could offer excellent value at just £7.5m. Watkins and Isak provide differential potential for FPL managers willing to take a riskier approach.
Haaland’s underlying numbers show why he is the most popular player in FPL and comfortably the best premium forward for Gameweek 1.
Thiago’s goal threat and penalty-taking duties make him the leading alternative, while João Pedro could offer excellent value at just £7.5m.
Watkins and Isak have lower ownership and plenty of differential potential, but both carry slightly more risk heading into the opening Gameweek.
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