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Top 50 Strategy: Captains

17 July 2022

Picking a captain is the most important decision a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager needs to get right every gameweek, and in this blog the captain picks of the most successful managers are analysed over the 2021/22 season.

Who were 2021/22's Top 50's Captain Picks?

Capt 1 (2)

The interactive versions of all graphs can be found in the fantasyfootballfix.com Preseason Pack

Who were the All Time Top 50's Captain Picks?

Capt 2 (2)

Who were All FPL's Captain Picks?

Capt 3 (2)

How Popular were the Top 50's Captain Picks?

Capt 4 (2)

For this chart we have compared the Top 50's captain picks each gameweek to the overall player base's captain pick, excluding dead teams. As is fairly evident the Top 50 manager's own captain pick is very much in line with the picks of the playerbase. Around 70% of the time the Top 50's captain pick was the either the most popular or second most popular across the player base.

Who did the best managers captain?

From the outset, it must be mentioned that captain picks were a bit more diverse this season due to the multiple double gameweeks. Players like Dennis, Weghorst etc. who might not have been otherwise trusted with the armband were picked as their team had a double that gameweek.

Emmanuel Dennis

Emmanuel Dennis - potentially an unlikely captain if not for a double gameweek.

As was the case in 2020/21, Salah was the most popular captain amongst both the ‘2021/22 Top 50’ (47.1%) and ‘All Time Top 50’ (50.6%). There is a significant difference in the second most popular pick with the ‘2021/22 Top 50’ going for Son (6.9%) and the ‘All Time Top 50’ going for Ronaldo (10.9%). Son was only the fifth most popular captain pick for the ‘All Time Top 50’ group (3.7%) and they trusted his teammate Kane (6.9%) far more than the ‘2021/22 Top 50’ (5.1%). Kane has been a prolific, consistent performer in seasons past and often outscored Son so the past experiences of the ‘All Time Top 50’ has likely played a part in their decision-making. Son was a much better FPL asset especially under Conte and the ‘2021/22 Top 50’ benefited from handing the South Korean the armband.

Cristiano Ronaldo

‘All Time Top 50’ captained Ronaldo 10.9% of last season

It is also apparent that both groups of successful managers picked over 70% of their captains from the ‘big six’ teams (Man. City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal and Man. Utd). The likes of King and Weghorst did receive the armband on occasion but these were rare and likely only in weeks where their team played twice.

The ‘All FPL’ user group captained Salah just 39.3% of the time with Kane 9.9% the second most popular. Ronaldo (8.7%), B. Fernandes (6.5%) and De Bruyne (3.5%) make up the top five with Son only finding himself in seventh (2.9%). This indicates that the ‘All FPL’ group was slower to adapt to Son’s role as an out-of-position striker under Conte and stuck with Kane instead. They also switched around their armband more often than the other groups. However, like the other two groups of successful managers they also chose to put their faith largely in players from the ‘top six’ sides.

Which captains delivered?

The ‘2021/22 Top 50’ made the right 50/50 calls on more occasions than the ‘All Time Top 50’. This was evidenced by the fact that Ronaldo averaged 6.9 points per game (PPG) for the first group but only 4.93 for the second. B. Fernandes also averaged 13.1 points for the first but only 9.54 for the second. While both groups attacked the same group of fixtures, the ‘2021/22 Top 50’ picked the right player more often. There is a learning to take from this. Merely attacking a fixture is not enough, picking the form player is just as important.

Mohamed Salah.jpg

Predictably, Salah was a popular captain choice in the 2021/22 season.

Salah averaged 9.5 points for the successful managers but only 7.89 for the ‘All FPL’ user group. A similar trend is seen with Son as well, the South Korean averaged 13 points for the successful groups but only 8.93 for the ‘All FPL’ group. The successful managers also benefited from some huge hauls from De Bruyne and Bowen. The South Korean’s average is particularly worth noting, he should be considered on par with Kane as a Fantasy asset next season and playing as a striker under Conte, he is an excellent captaincy pick. Salah (9.5) also improved significantly from his average of 7.0 last season and should be one of the first names on any FPL manager’s team sheet next campaign. A general trend can also be observed with midfielders posting the highest averages and should be trusted with the armband more often.

How often did the best managers pick the most popular captain?

The data indicates that the ‘2021/22 Top 50’s captain pick was either the most popular or second most popular across the player base, most of the time. They did not go seeking a differential just for the sake of it and were content with going with the most popular option if they believed that was the best play. This would indicate, more often than not, going with the most popular pick every week is likely to pay dividends.

This blog has been taken from the fantasyfootballfix.com Preseason Pack. You can find more blogs looking at the Top 50's strategies, team analysis, season review data and more.

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