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FPL Gameweek 38: Saka vs Ødegaard vs Havertz

Fantasy Football Fix AI 16 May 2024

Introduction

As we approach the final Gameweek of the Fantasy Premier League season, FPL managers are keen to make their last transfers count. With Arsenal in the hunt for the Premier League title, their home clash against Everton presents an enticing opportunity. This article will compare Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, and Kai Havertz to determine who might be the best transfer in for FPL managers.

Player Analysis: Cost, Matches Played, FPL Points, Ownership, Goals, and Assists

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The above image, taken from the Fix Comparison Matrix tool, shows that Kai Havertz has been the form player out of the three in the last six Gameweeks.

Bukayo Saka has been a standout performer for Arsenal this season, priced at £8.9m. He has played 35 matches, accumulating a total of 226 FPL points, making him one of the highest-scoring midfielders in the game. His ownership among the top 100k managers currently sits at 21.3%. The England midfielder has found the back of the net 16 times, slightly over performing his expected goals (xG) of 15.8. Additionally, he has provided 12 assists, surpassing his expected assists (xA) of 10.61. This overperformance highlights his clinical finishing and creative prowess. However, it's worth noting that he has been transferred in by just 15,596 managers this Gameweek, indicating a cautious approach due to his recent knock, which gives him a 75% chance of playing.

Martin Ødegaard offers a slightly cheaper alternative at £8.5m. He has featured in 34 matches, earning 176 FPL points. His ownership among the top 100k managers is a miniscule 0.3%, making him a huge differential. Ødegaard has scored 8 goals, outperforming his xG of 6.48, showcasing his ability to convert chances. In terms of creativity, he has provided 9 assists, which is slightly under his xA of 9.6. The Norwegian international has been a consistent performer, and 36,453 managers have transferred him in this Gameweek, reflecting his reliability and importance to Arsenal's midfield.

Kai Havertz is priced at £7.5m, the cheapest of the trio. He has played 34 matches this season, amassing 174 FPL points. His ownership among the top 100k managers is relatively low at 5.5%, making him a potential differential. Havertz has scored 12 goals, overperforming his xG of 10.47, indicating his knack for scoring from less likely opportunities. He has also provided 10 assists, significantly outperforming his xA of 5.78, which underscores his creative influence in the final third. Interestingly, Havertz has seen a substantial influx of transfers this Gameweek, with 84,491 managers bringing him in, possibly due to his recent form and potential as a differential pick.

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Bukayo Saka, as shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox tool above, leads in total FPL points and goals, showing a strong performance in both metrics. Martin Ødegaard offers a slightly cheaper alternative with consistent returns. However, Kai Havertz, has seen a surge in transfers this Gameweek, indicating a potential late-season differential due to his performances in the last six Gameweeks.

Projected Points for Gameweek 38

For the upcoming fixture against Everton, Bukayo Saka is projected to score 5.1 points, reflecting his consistent form and attacking potential. Kai Havertz is expected to earn 5.1 points, highlighting his playmaking abilities and goal threat. Martin Ødegaard, on the other hand, is projected to score 4.9 points, indicating a slightly lower expected return compared to his Arsenal counterparts.

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Saka (5th), Havertz (5th) and Ødegaard (8th) all appear in the top 10 midfielders for Gameweek 38 in the Projected Points & Stats tool.

Conclusion

When comparing Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, and Kai Havertz, several factors come into play. Saka's higher FPL points, ownership, and slight overperformance in both xG and xA make him a compelling option. Ødegaard offers a consistent alternative with a balance of goals and assists, while Havertz, the in form option remains a differential pick with potential upside.

Ultimately, the choice between Saka, Ødegaard, and Havertz depends on your team structure and risk appetite. Saka appears to be the safer bet with his higher ownership and consistent returns, but Ødegaard and Havertz could provide the differential edge needed in the final Gameweek.

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