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Points Chasing; Differentials That Could Boost Your Rank

12 March 2015

As spring approaches and we enter the final 10 rounds of the Premier League, it’s time to start focusing on the end race of the FPL, whether you’re looking to gain ground to achieve an honourable ranking or maintain a high rank. If you’re looking to gain ground, then perhaps it’s even more important for you than for those highly ranked to find those hidden differentials that can boost you up the rankings – or leave you in the dust if the template players outscore them. In this article, we will look at some players that – hopefully – should net you some nice differential points and send you flying up those rankings.

Let’s start with looking at defenders. Most of you will already have at least one Chelsea defender and one Southampton defender – and that is well justified as the five top scoring defenders come from these two teams. In fact, 65.5% of top 1k managers own at least one Chelsea defender or keeper, a figure that is actually lower than expected. Owned by 23.7% of the top 1k, Ivanovic is not a differential, but should still help you climb the rankings as he will most likely score the most points from here on out. Even more top 1k managers own Southampton defenders, with almost 80% owning at least one. Thus, a Soton defender might not be a differential, but Toby Alderweireld is the cheapest of the bunch at 4.7m, and is only owned by 0.8% of all players and 0.7% within the top 1k. If you want to double up on Soton defenders, and feel that Clyne and Bertrand are too expensive, then Toby’s your man.

A third popular defence, in fact only 0.4% less popular than Chelsea defence amongst the top 1k, is West Bromwich’s defence. While all WBA defenders, besides the non-starting Wisdom, have low overall ownership, Foster and Dawson are owned by 44.4% and 28.3% of the top 1k. Lescott(5.1m) and McAuley (4.8m) would be the differentials as they are owned by 4.8% and 1.1% of the top 1k respectively, but both are more expensive than Dawson. Looking at WBA’s fixtures, the ballsy might even consider doubling up on their defence as they face Stoke, QPR, and Leicester at home in the next four matches, with an away match to City in between, but that would be a short-term move as their five final fixtures are downright awful, with four matches against teams currently ranked in the top 5. Another move that might require some balls is bringing in a City defender. Knowing City, they could just as easily win all remaining matches – they certainly have the fixtures for it – or struggle against teams like Burnley, WBA, and Palace, which they face in the next three. Every one of City’s defenders can be regarded as a differential, and that low ownership is not only because of City’s shaky defensive displays, but also the constant rotation at the back. Joe Hart has started all of City’s PL matches barring two, and is likely to start every remaining match as City attempts to catch up to Chelsea. Kompany would normally be considered nailed on, but disappointing displays saw him lose his spot to Demichelis against Leicester. While I don’t expect Demichelis to retain a starting spot, Mangala is likely to fill the other CB role. Kolarov has started the last four PL matches, but how likely that is to last is anyone’s guess. Another top team, whose entire defence would serve as a differential, is Liverpool, and having kept six clean sheets in the last eight, they seem considerably more solid than City.

Moreno provides an attacking threat in addition to the clean sheet potential, however while not always certain to start, he looks to start most of the time. He costs 5.2m and is owned by 6.1% overall and 4.6% of the top 1k. Skrtel is a tad more expensive at 6.0m, but is a definite starter. That being said, he sustained an injury in the FA Cup so look out for injury news before deciding on him. Sunderland have good looking fixtures coming up, and while Pantilimonaka Pantsu and van Aanholtaka PvA have less than 5% ownership overall, they are both owned by approximately half of the top 1k, so whether or not they are differentials depends on your ranking. Finally, West Ham have undergone a very tough match schedule, but their fixtures look quite nice for the remainder of the season with only Arsenal and City away as difficult fixtures. Cresswell costs 5.6m and is owned by 5% overall and 2.2% in the top 1k. Jenkinson is cheaper at 5.0m and has lower ownership at 0.6% overall and 0.9% in the top 1k, but he can’t play against his parent club Arsenal in West Ham’s next match. You probably wouldn’t bring him in for that match either.

There are several midfielders with low ownership that also don’t cost too much, that could score you some points over the coming weeks. Firstly, Mané of Southampton has 2 goals in his last 4 starts, and comes in at a price of 6.6m with an ownership of 1.7% overall, and 8.2% in the top 1k. While Southampton have struggled offensively lately, Mané will certainly be among the points if they should regain their good form. Another player who plays for a team with poor form is Stewart Downing, who, even with one assist in his last six matches, is still ranked fourth among the midfielders. Should West Ham improve over the coming weeks, he is most certainly a good option at 6.6m, owned by 27% overall and 9.2% of the top 1k. Opposite of Southampton and West Ham, Liverpool struggled at the start of the season, but have improved wildly lately. Jordan Henderson has netted one goal and two assists in his two matches, but a quick look at his record shows that he blanks more often than he does not. Another player known for his inconsistency is Philippe Coutinho, who has two goals in his last three matches. Henderson is the cheaper option at 6.3m and is owned by 13% overall and 0.7% of the top 1k, while Coutinho costs 7.9m and is owned by 7.4% overall and 3.5% of the top 1k.

Cheaper than both Henderson and Coutinho, Puncheon is priced at 5.6m and is owned by 5.0% overall and 12.7% of the top 1k. In his last six matches, he has only produced three assists, and all of them came in the same match, but he is on set pieces and could add to both his goals and assists tally over the coming weeks. Even cheaper than Puncheon is Moses of Stoke City, who has two goals in his last three matches. Furthermore, he has been in good form since his return, and is up there with players like Hazard, Silva, and Eriksen when it comes to successful dribbles, chances created, and touches in the final third. He costs 5.2 and is owned by 0.7% overall and 7.4% of the top 1k.

Looking at a more expensive option, Özil has been in great form for Arsenal since his return and has provided two goals and five assists in six matches. Costing 9.1 and owned by 5.9% overall and 11.5% of the top 1k, he presents a differential to both Sanchez and Cazorla. Whether he is a better option than them, on the other hand, is a more complex question. Finally, the last two options come from Swansea. Since his return from international duty, Ki has scored three goals in five matches, and coming in at 5.1, he’s the cheapest option among the mids. Sigurdsson netted a goal against his old club Tottenham last time out, which saw him end a four-match long drought. He is priced at 6.5 and owned by 24.2% overall and 1.9% of the top 1k, while Ki is owned by 4.9% overall and 1.1% of the top 1k.

Looking at strikers, we got both some cheap options and some more expensive ones. Firstly, Dame N’Doye has only five appearances for Hull, in which two came from the bench. In the three matches he started, he scored three goals and assisted one. Hull’s fixture list isn’t nice, but he still presents a budget option as he costs 5.5 and a differential as he’s owned by 0.6%, both overall and within the top 1k. West Bromwich have certainly improved since Pulis took over, and this has affected Berahino as well who has three goals in his last four matches. Their fixture list is very good looking as previously mentioned, and at 5.6 and an ownership of 11.9% overall and 0.7% of the top 1k, Berahino is a good short-term option. As with Downing, whether or not Sakho is a good option depends on West Ham’s form as he has only one goal in his last five matches.

Coming in at 5.5 and owned by 2.6% overall and 0.9% of the top 1k, I would suggest that Berahino is a better option. A more expensive option, Wayne Rooney has been used as a striker lately due to United’s injuries. Including United’s FA Cup match against Arsenal, he has scored three goals in his last three matches. While United’s fixture list is tough, Rooney is more likely than any to be among the goals. He costs 10.6 and is owned by 16.4% overall, but only 2.2% of the top 1k. The last player I will highlight may initially come as a surprise to you, but with a recent suspension his ownership has dropped so low that he has become a differential. Diego Costa is owned by 38.2% overall, but only 2.0% of the top 1k. With a nice fixture list and an upcoming DGW, he could be the ultimate differential should he regain the scoring form he had before his suspension.

Well, there you have it; a number of players that can serve as differentials and boost your ranking, or damage it if you choose the wrong option. I have highlighted several players I believe can benefit your team, but whichever you choose – if any – is completely up to you.

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