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March Replacements Compared

Fantasy Football Fix 10 May 2023

Popular Brighton midfielder March suffered an injury after coming on as a substitute against Everton in gameweek 35 and in this blog the best midfield options at 7.0 and under are compared

What do the projections say

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Brighton midfielders Mitoma (19.8) and Groß (16.8) have the highest projected score as per the Fix Algorithm amongst midfielders at 7.0m or under for the final three gameweeks, which is understandable given the Seagulls have five games over that period. Mac Allister (16.1) is also close behind but it is interesting to see the Arsenal mids, Martinelli (16.3) and Ødegaard (14.7), close behind. Willock (14.4) is also an option with Newcastle's double and favourable fixtures in 37 and 38.

Stats Comparison

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The numbers of five of the aforementioned players are compared over the last six gameweeks using the Fix Comparison Matrix, as shown in the image above. Ødegaard's numbers stand out, the Norwegian international has scored nearly as many goals (five) as the other candidates combined (six) and the underlying numbers back it up as well, he is top for shots on target (SoT) (nine) and joint-top for 'big chances' (BC) (three). As the below image from our FPL Statistics feature shows, he is owned by just 5.1% of the top 1000 and is a huge differential amongst active players.

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Martinelli's shot volume has dried up of late having only landed four SoT but the Brazilian international's underlying numbers are very strong and he is top of the comparison for assists (three), chances created (14), BC (three) and BC created (four). Groß also has decent underlying numbers, but if picking a Brighton mid, Mac Allister, has significantly better shot numbers (22 vs seven), the same number of chances created (12) and better BC (three to one). Willock's 18 points is the lowest in the comparison but the midfielder is ranked third for shots (12), fourth for attempted assists (nine) and joint-second for BC involvements (one BC, three BC created). His ownership is also quite low and he is one of the more nailed on routes into the Newcastle attack.

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