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GW9 Lessons Learned

Fantasy Football Fix 4 Oct. 2022

xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

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Trossard tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek nine with a score of 13.4. The Belgian international was afforded more 'big chances' (four) than any player over the weekend. Haaland was joint-top for shots in the box (SiB) six but only one of these was a 'big chance', he also created two 'big chances' and notched an xFPL score of 12.1. Saka (five) created more chances than any other player but none of these were a 'big chance' which meant a low xFPL score of just 3.8. Foden scored with three of his five SiB, no player landed more shots on target (SoT) (four) than the 22-year-old and he registered an xFPL score of 11.1. Salah managed just five points in FPL, but his underlying numbers were encouraging. The Egyptian international took four SiB, two of which were 'big chances' and also created a 'big chance'. His xFPL score of 6.1 indicates he could have had a bigger haul.

Transfer Activity analysed

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Hattrick heroes Trossard and Foden are the most transferred-in players this week as per our Transfer Analytics feature with the duo already seeing over 750,000 transfers at the time of writing. De Bruyne has already seen a price rise and a lot of Salah owners are moving to the Belgian international with the Egyptian seeing over 300,000 transfers out. Alexander-Arnold is the most sold player so far with Trippier and James the main beneficiaries. Mitrović has also seen over 300,000 transfers out but the severity of the Serbian international's injury is yet to be determined and he could well be available for gameweek 10. As the below image shows, Fulham are ranked fifth on our Fixture Planner for the next five gameweeks and he is a good long-term hold even if he misses the gameweek 10 fixture.

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Mid-priced mids shining

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Several midfielders in the 8.0 price bracket such as Foden, Bowen, Maddison etc. returned big hauls this gameweek and they all posted impressive numbers as well. As the above image from our Comparison Matrix feature shows, Maddison looks to be the standout pick with the Leicester midfielder top for FPL points (7.8), goals (0.8), shots (3.8), SoT (1.5), attempted assists (2.8) and 'big chances' created (0.3). Foden is a close second, the 22-year-old is top for both 'big chances' (0.5) and 'big chances' created (0.3) but the fact that he blanks in gameweek 12 might be off-putting in the short term. Bowen's numbers are underwhelming with just 0.4 SoT per game and 0.1 'big chances' per game, but he is the lowest owned of the players mentioned and is just hitting form ahead of West Ham's kind fixtures.

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