1. xFPL Review

A look at the Fix xFPL table for gameweek seven reveals a clear correlation between Expected Fantasy Premier League (xFPL) points and actual FPL points. All the top performers, bar Maguire, posted FPL scores similar to their xFPL points, indicating their performance justified their hauls. While Richarlison was the most transferred in player this week it was his Icelandic teammate Sigurdsson who stole the show despite missing a penalty, with five attempted assists. That’s number was joint-first with Maddison, and Sigurdsson’s four shots in the box (SiB) was second only to Agüero. Kane’s stats continue to show an upward trend with three shots on target (SoT) and three ‘big chances’, more than any other player. Sterling is flying under the radar (owned by just 4.4%) with FPL returns in each of his the last four gameweeks and appears to be the most explosive differential out there. Salah posts poor xFPL figures of 4.8 which is his lowest of the season so far. No wonder patience is wearing thin with the Egyptian and he is currently the most transferred out player after his early substitution at Stamford Bridge.

2. Kane vs. Agüero

It is now three goals in two games for Kane. The Englishman is the third most transferred in player for gameweek eight with many FPL managers shipping Agüero for the Englishman. The obvious allure is the upcoming fixture vs. Cardiff where Kane represents the standout captaincy option given Salah and Agüero are squaring off at Anfield. A comparison of the heatmaps for gameweek six and seven highlights Kane’s impressive numbers. Though Agüero did take 13 shots to Kane’s eight, the Englishman has found the target with more regularity, and attempted more assists. He also posts more impressive xG (expected goals) numbers, but these are inflated by his two penalties. It is worth mentioning that Agüero’s minutes have been curtailed by a niggling injury, one which Guardiola expects him to fully recover from over the international break having been omitted from the Argentina national squad. Another factor to consider are fixtures after gameweek eight. Spurs play Chelsea and Man. City, along with away trips to West Ham, Palace and Wolves, which could be potential banana skins. Agüero faces Burnley, Southampton and Man. United at home, with away trips to West Ham and Spurs. It is worth mentioning that the champions won all of these corresponding fixtures last year, barring the home defeat to the Red Devils. Our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 30.3 for the Argentinian vs. a point score of 27.8 for Kane between gameweek nine – thirteen, indicating that shipping Agüero this week could be a mistake in the long run.

3. The Gunners firing again

With five wins in the last five and back to back clean sheets, Arsenal are arguably the league’s form team at the moment. Surprisingly, ownership of their assets remains low with Bellerin and Aubameyang the most owned at 10.3%. Lacazette who has FPL involvements in each of his last four games has only 7% ownership and their highest scoring midfield asset, Özil, sits at just 3.6% ownership. The Frenchman has taken 10 SiB in the last four gameweeks and only Kane and Aguero have had more. Despite registering only two SoT in gameweek seven, the Gunners still sit fourth overall for SoT with 39 and are projected to score the third most goals over the next six weeks, with 12.74. Only Man. City and Liverpool are projected to score more.