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GW6 Lessons Learned

Fantasy Football Fix 24 Sept. 2018

1. xFPL Analysis of the gameweek

A look at the Expected Fantasy Premier League (xFPL) points table for the weekend reveals that an old fantasy favourite appears to be finding his feet again. Kane tops the table with five shots in the box (SiB) and two ‘big chances’ ahead of a run of games against Cardiff, Huddersfield and West Ham. Mitrovic further strengthened his case as the budget forward of choice, with an xFPL of 8.5, and eight shots, more than any other player this week. The Leicester forwards and Man. City midfielders enjoyed their outings against Huddersfield and Cardiff, highlighting the points potential of players who are up against 'relegation battlers'. Iheanacho at 5.9 could be a great option with Leicester’s kind run of fixtures, given his new position behind Vardy. Wan-Bissaka continues to impress with an xFPL score of 8 and the English right-back had noticeably better stats than the pricier Van Aanholt, who appears to be a luxury at the moment. Salah got back on the scoresheet, but actually posted worse numbers than previous weeks and strangely did not attempt a single assist, indicating his single mindedness to score - which could bode well for owners moving forward.

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2. Mendy replacements

With the Frenchman now missing consecutive gameweeks and a lack of clarity on his return date many FPL managers are scrambling for a replacement. A look at the xFPL table for defenders this season highlights the potential of Wolves’ defence, with Doherty, Boly and Jonny all great options. Alonso and Robertson are obvious replacements if they do not already feature in your side, but with the two clashing at Stamford Bridge this weekend, immediate returns in the form of a clean sheet seem unlikely. Holebas posts impressive numbers as a result of his set piece duty but managers should be aware that the Greek national has already notched up four yellow cards and is just one card away from a one match suspension. Trippier has proved to be a popular option as per our transfer trends. The right-back has attempted nine assists, third highest among defenders, behind only Robertson (11) and Holebas (12) and has already displayed his ability from dead ball situations over the summer at the World Cup. Rotation with Aurier due to European commitments does remain a concern here though, so a playing bench is required. Arsenal kept their first clean sheet of the season and Monreal appears to be a better option than Bellerin, with an xFPL score of 28.8 vs the right-back’s 23.7.

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3. Pedro/Mkhitaryan/Walcott replacements

As per our transfer trends, the next two most popular moves after Mendy to Trippier involve shipping Pedro for Richarlison or Maddison. The two goalscoring midfielders are compared using the Fix Heatmaps feature, and there is not really a clear-cut winner. Richarlison has played two games less as a result of his red card vs. Bournemouth, so perhaps the averages serve as a better metric than the total numbers. Maddison appears to be the more creative of the two, no doubt helped by set piece duties, with 1.7 attempted assists per game vs Richarlison's 0.7. When it comes to goal threat though the Brazilian is head and shoulders above the Englishman. He averages 1.7 shots on target over Maddison's 1.2, and crucially 1.7 SiB vs 0.7. As the shot map indicates, Maddison's efforts seem to be largely from outside the box. He had zero penalty box touches vs. Huddersfield in gameweek six as he found himself shifted to the left-wing, and scored from his only shot on target. With fixtures favouring the Englishman over the Brazilian both appear to be excellent acquisitions for your squads going forward and Richarlison perhaps edges it with Maddison's output expected to dip as a result of his shift from a no. 10 role to left-wing. Over the next six our Fix Algorithm projects both to score similarly, with Richarlison to score 24.0 points and 23.7 for Maddison.

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