Headliner - Sergio Agüero (BHA)
Agüero netted twice against the Cherries in gameweek three and an injury to G. Jesus makes the Argentine a sure starter for Brighton’s visit to the Etihad this weekend. As the Custom Stats table shows, five ‘big chances’ have been afforded to the 31-year-old this season, a total matched by Salah and only bettered by teammate Sterling (six). In the last two gameweeks, where he’s earned consecutive starts, Agüero has matched Salah and Sterling with a total of three shots on target (SoT) and only Mount, A. Barnes (each five) and Pukki (eight) have taken more. The defending Champions have continued where they left off last season, and top the table for goals (10), shots (63), shots in the box (SiB) (47), SoT (24) and ‘big chances’ (14). Although Brighton have conceded only 10 SoT, the fifth best in the league, it is worth mentioning that they played Watford, West Ham and Southampton in this run so that number is a tad misleading. None of these teams are close to the attacking force that is Man. City and our Fix Algorithm predicts a point score of 7.9 for Aguero.
Mohamed Salah (bur)
A brace from Salah helped Liverpool secure a 3-1 win over Arsenal, to take maximum points from their opening three matches. The home side were afforded four ‘big chances’ during the game, with three of those falling to the Egyptian and the other to Mané. Only Sterling (six) has had more ‘big chances’ than Salah (five) this season, while A. Barnes (10), Pukki and Sterling (each 12) are the only players to fire more than his eight SiB. Liverpool are the only team in the league to win all their games and only Man. City (seven) have scored more goals than their six. Their total of 18 SoT is beaten only by Chelsea (20) and Man. City (24) and they only trail the defending Champions for ‘big chances’ 10 to 14. Although Burnley have conceded only three so far, their underlying statistics indicate they have been a bit fortunate. Their total of 43 shots conceded is the eighth worst in the league and only five teams allowed opponents more SoT than their 14. Our Fix Algorithm predicts a point score of 6.2 for the Egyptian.
Mason Mount (SHU)
Mount scored for a second successive match as Chelsea got the better of Norwich in a five-goal thriller at Carrow Road. The 20-year-old fired a total of five shots and no midfielder managed more than his two SoT during the gameweek. As the Custom Stats table shows, only A. Barnes (13) has taken more goal attempts than Mount (12) across the first three gameweeks, while Pukki (nine) and A. Barnes (eight) are the only players to better his seven SoT. His total of seven attempted assists ranks joint-top amongst Chelsea teammates, on par with Pedro. The Blues' underlying numbers indicate that they should have scored more goals than their four. Only Man. City (63) have taken more shots than their 55 and the Blues are also third for SiB (30), trailing only Liverpool (37) and Man. City (47). Sheff. Utd have good defensive statistics, conceding only nine SoT, the fourth lowest in the league but this is their first top flight away match against a ‘top six’ side and a significant step up from the opposition they have faced thus far.
Sébastian Haller (NOR)
West Ham’s first win of the season came at the hands of Watford, with new signing Haller getting off the mark. The 25-year-old arrived at West Ham after a successful 2018/19 season in the Bundesliga, where he netted 15 times and provided nine assists, in 29 appearances. His two goals came from a total of four attempts, all of which were from inside the box and no player fired as many as his three SoT during the gameweek. An 'expected goals' (xG) figure of 1.9 ranked top of all players in gameweek three, while only Salah (three) was afforded more than his two ‘big chances’. The Hammers have landed 16 SoT, the fifth highest in the league, trailing only Liverpool, Norwich (both 18), Chelsea (20) and Man. City (24). They are also ranked third for ‘big chances’ with nine, only Liverpool (10) and Man. City (14) have registered more. Their opponents Norwich have conceded eight goals, the most in the league and are yet to keep a clean sheet. They have allowed 19 SoT, more than any other team and only Villa, Watford (both eight), Bournemouth (11) and West Ham themselves (13) have allowed more ‘big chances’ than the Canaries’ seven. Our Fix Algorithm predicts a point score of 4.0 for Haller.
Oleksandr Zinchenko (BHA)
Gameweek three saw Man. City lose their clean sheet to a wonder free kick from H. Wilson, in a 3-1 win over Bournemouth. Zinchenko provided an impressive total of five attempted assists; more than any teammate and Alexander-Arnold (six) was the only defender to register more during the gameweek. In the absence of Mendy, the Ukrainian has started in 13 of the last 14 league games, missing the one game through injury. Man. City have allowed opponents only 18 shots in their three matches, the lowest in the league and only six teams have allowed fewer ‘big chances’ then their five. Brighton have got off to a positive start under Potter, scoring four goals. However, they have only managed 33 shots, the seventh lowest in the league and are also seventh worst for SoT with 10. Our Fix Algorithm predicts a 70% chance of a Man. City clean sheet and a point score of 5.5 for Zinchenko.