Caveat - This blog was written prior to the Man. Utd - Chelsea game on 25/05/2023
Kane's total of five goals over the last six gameweeks can only be bettered by C. Wilson (eight) amongst forwards, the 29-year-old is fourth for shots on target (SoT) (nine) and fifth for 'Expected Goals' (xG) (2.55) over that period. Only Welbeck (10) has created more chances than his nine while no forward has created more 'big chances' (BC) than his five. As the below image from our FPL Statistics feature shows, he is owned by just 12.8% of the Top 1000 and is a great differential for the final day. Spurs have scored nine goals over the last six gameweeks and are ranked ninth for xG (8.81). Their opponents Leeds have conceded 15 goals over the same period with only Brighton (13.85) notching a worse 'Expected Goals Conceded' (xGC) figure than their 13.46. Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 6.2 for Kane.
Salah failed to find the back of the net against Villa last weekend but over the last six gameweeks the Egyptian international is top amongst midfielders for goals (four), shots in the box (SiB) (19) and xG (4.35). Meanwhile, only Mitoma (seven) has been afforded more BC than his six. As the below image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, he is a popular transfer target this week with nearly 50,000 managers bringing him in. Liverpool have scored 15 goals over the aforementioned period with only Man. City (16), Brighton (17) and Newcastle (19) more prolific. Meanwhile, only Brighton (26) and Newcastle (30) have fashioned more BC than their 23. Their hosts Southampton have conceded 16 goals over the last six gameweeks with only Spurs (17) more porous. Wolves (113) and West Ham (124) are the only teams to have conceded more shots than their 108. Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 6.4 for Salah.
Jesus has scored only one goal over the last six gameweeks but as the Stats Sandbox image below shows he has attempted 15 SiB with only Mbeumo (18), C. Wilson (22) and Haaland (25) attempting more. Arsenal have scored nine goals over the same period and are ranked sixth for shots (84) and 11th for xG (7.58). Their opponents Wolves have conceded 11 goals over the last six gameweeks and have kept just two clean sheets. Meanwhile, only Leeds (13.46) and Brighton (13.85) have fared worse for xGC than the Midlands side (12.55). Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 5.6 for Jesus.
Eze has notched three goals over the last six gameweeks and as the below image from our Match Stats feature shows, over the last five matches he is top amongst Palace players for goals (three), xG (1.8), SoT (six) and chances created (11). The Eagles have scored eight goals over the last six gameweeks and are ranked eighth for shots (77). Their visitors Forest achieved Premier League safety last weekend and have conceded 11 goals over the aforementioned period. They are ranked 14th for shots conceded (93) and 12th for xGC (10.59). Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 4.0 for Eze.
Alexander-Arnold has been thriving in a midfield role, only Porro (12) and Schar (14) have attempted more shots than his 11 amongst defenders over the last six gameweeks. Meanwhile, only Estupinan (15) and Trippier (24) have created more chances than his 13. Liverpool have conceded seven goals over the last six gameweeks and have kept three clean sheets. Villa and Palace (34 each) are the only sides to have allowed opponents fewer SiB than the Merseyside outfit (36). Their hosts Southampton have scored eight goals over the last six gameweeks with no side taking fewer shots than their 52. They are ranked 18th for xG (6.07) over the aforementioned period. Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a 40% probability of a Liverpool clean sheet and a point score of 4.9 for the right-back.
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