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GW37 Lessons Learned

Fantasy Football Fix 23 May 2023

xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.


Mina tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 37 so far with a score of 11.3. The Colombian international took three shots, two of which were ‘big chances’ (BC) and also attempted one assist. Mbeumo led the way for both shots (six) and shots in the box (SiB) (six), the 23-year-old landed three of these efforts on target but only one was a BC, which meant a low xFPL score of 8.0. Mac Allister was the weekend’s most creative player with seven attempted assists, he attempted no SiB and notched an xFPL score of just 3.9. Mitrović led the way for BC (three), all three of the Serbian international’s three SiB were classified as BC which meant an xFPL score of 10.6.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed


As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Eze, C. Wilson, Ødegaard, Salah and Kane are the top transfer targets for gameweek 38 so far with not much transfer activity seen across the board. Some of FPL’s top point scorers are being sold with Martinelli, Toney, Trippier, Rashford and Haaland the top five transfers out. The transfers are fairly scattered as well, 20% of forward transfers involve shipping Haaland, Isak, Jota or C. Wilson for Kane. In midfield, Martinelli and Mitoma to Eze accounts for 13% of the transfer traffic. In defence, Trippier out seems to be the popular move with Alexander-Arnold receiving 7% of the traffic.

Eze vs McNeil



Eze and McNeil are likely to be popular transfer targets for managers going into gameweek 38, Palace play a Forest side with little to play for at Selhurst Park while Everton need a win at Goodison to secure Premier League safety. As the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, both players have scored similar FPL points over the last six gameweeks (37 vs 38) and the same number of goals (three). They are virtually identical for ‘Expected Goals’ (xG) (1.84 vs 1.85) as well and for shots (16 vs 17). It is very close for attempted assists as well (11 vs 12) but McNeil has created three BC compared to just one for Eze which affords the latter a better ‘Expected Assists’ tally (0.78 vs 1.85). There is nothing to split the two and both are excellent picks for the final day.

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