xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

C. Wilson tops the xFPL Custom Stats table for gameweek 34 so far with a score of 11.2. No player took more shots in the box (SiB) (six) than the Newcastle forward and he is also joint-top with Vardy for 'big chances' (BC) (three). Trippier was the weekend's most creative player with five attempted assists, which included one BC created. The right-back was unfortunate not to register any FPL returns and notched an xFPL score of 5.7. Calvert-Lewin posted impressive numbers with five SiB, two BC and two attempted assists, leading to an xFPL score of 8.2. Welbeck continues to go under the radar ahead of two upcoming doubles, the 32-year-old took five shots, four of which were in the box, landed three on target and also attempted two assists. His two BC involvements meant he registered an xFPL score of 8.8.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, after scoring eight league goals in April, it comes as no surprise to see C. Wilson top the transfers in for gameweek 35. Rashford, Estupiñán and Groß are also popular acquisitions after their returns on the weekend and upcoming doubles. Despite their recent heroics, Watkins and Toney are the top two transfers out and the traffic seems largely to be heading towards the Newcastle forwards, C. Wilson and Isak. Selling one of Watkins or Toney to C. Wilson accounts for 26% of all forward transfers in gameweek 35 so far. In midfield, 17% of the transfers involve either Saka or Martinelli making way for Rashford. Salah to De Bruyne also appears to be a popular move but managers should perhaps wait for fitness updates on the latter before making the shift. In defence, Mee accounts for three of the top five transfer combinations with the centreback making way for Estupiñán, Shaw or Dalot. Raya to De Gea is the most popular goalkeeper transfer (15%). There is a clear trend of bringing in players who have doubles over the next four gameweeks.

C. Wilson vs Isak

As the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, despite just 314 minutes for C. Wilson versus 457 for Isak over the last six gameweeks the former has averaged 7.7 FPL points to the latter's 5.1. A look at the underlying numbers shows that C.Wilson has scored double the goals (eight vs four) and taken more shots in the box (SiB) (13 vs 11). Despite the number of SiB being quite similar, there is a huge difference in the 'Expected Goals' (xG) numbers with C. Wilson notching over double the xG (4.38 vs 1.90) which indicates that he is getting on the end of BC far more than the Swedish international. Isak's versatility has seen him occupy a role on the left-wing at times, he is ahead of C. Wilson for 'Expected Assists' (xA) (0.66 vs 1.33) and arguably has more routes to points. Both appear to be great picks for Newcastle's double in 36 but on the basis of these numbers, C. Wilson does appear to be the more explosive option.