Blog

7 July

GW33+ Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL explained

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Vardy tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 33+ with an xFPL score of 11.1. The only player to register a double digit xFPL score this gameweek, the striker took five shots in the box (SiB), three of which were ‘big chances’. Jesus matched him for ‘big chances’ and shots (six) but failed to convert any of his opportunities, notching an xFPL score of 6.5. The Portuguese pair of B. Fernandes and B. Silva were this week’s most creative players with five attempted assists apiece. The Man. Utd. man is quite some way ahead in terms of xFPL score though (8.4 vs 4.7) due to his two shots on target (SoT) compared to none for B. Silva.

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2. Rashford vs Greenwood

Greenwood registered his second consecutive double-digit haul with his brace against Bournemouth and his numbers are compared to the more popular Rashford using the Fix Heatmaps feature. Greenwood has shot more frequently than Rashford with six SiB compared to the latter’s four but Rashford is still ahead in terms of expected goals (xG) (1.57 vs 0.64). That xG number however is inflated a bit due to the penalty Rashford took against Bournemouth. There is no doubt that Rashford is the more creative of the two, with five attempted assists to Greenwood’s one. The 18 year old’s low average xG per 90 of just 0.24 also indicates that his finishing is top quality, whether that can be sustained or not remains to be seen. Both look to be great options and the value Greenwood offers at a price of 4.6 is exceptional.

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3. Spurs worth investing in?

Spurs notched their second win since the restart with a 1-0 win against Everton and they now play the team with the worst defensive record over the last four games, Bournemouth. The Cherries have conceded 12 goals since the restart and appear to be the whipping boys. On paper, investing in the Spurs attack for gameweek 34+ looks to make sense. However, a look at the Stats Sandbox indicates that their attacking numbers in general are unimpressive. Kane leads the way for xFPL (17.17) but he has landed just four (of his 12) shots on target. Son has landed the same number of SoT (four) and is close to Kane for xFPL score (15.98), but has attempted seven assists to the Englishman’s one. The Korean however has been afforded just one ‘big chance’ since the restart compared to four for Kane. To put it in perspective nine midfielders have landed more SoT than Son and five forwards have managed more than Kane. Spurs as a team have managed just 11 SoT in total across their four matches, an average of less than three a game. Only Brighton (10), Palace (seven), Bournemouth (five) and Norwich (five) have managed to land fewer SoT. Investing in Spurs' attack might not be a wise decision, not matter how poor Bournemouth are at present.

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