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GW33 Buy, Sell, Keep

25 April 2023

As the deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign, and the importance of getting it right cannot be overstated.

In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 33.

BUY: Solly March

  • Cost: £5.2m
  • Selected by: 11.6%
  • Projected Points (Next 6 GWs): 40.9

brighton fixtures

Brighton are ranked top for fixture difficulty (defence and attack) - click here for Fixture Planner

If you have not already tripled-up on Brighton assets, then this must be your priority for the coming Gameweeks. Fixtures and form are key for targeting the best FPL assets, and Brighton currently has both.

With a season-long xG of 55.13, Brighton has one of the best attacks in the Premier League, with only Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool able to better those attacking numbers.

As for fixtures, Brighton is the only team with three confirmed doubles between now and the end of the season. Even in Gameweeks 33 and 35 – where they face Nottingham Forest and Everton respectively – Brighton’s fixtures are worth targeting.

The problem with Brighton is that their attacking returns are well split amongst the team members, with no standout talisman. But it is Solly March (£5.2m) who provides the best balance of the lot.

solly march stats

March has the most balanced underlying stats amongst Brighton players - click here for Opta Stats Sandbox

According to Opta Stats Sandbox, no Brighton player has more xFPL Points (149.48) than March. Indeed, his combined xG + xA is 15.8, higher than any other player. The split between the two metrics is roughly 50/50, meaning March is as likely to get an assist (9) as he is a goal (7). The evidence suggests he is slightly more clinical as well, with more of his shots landing on target (31) than any of his team mates.

The Algorithm rates his chances of returning higher than any other Brighton asset. According to Player Points Projections, March is ranked fourth – of all players – in terms of predicted points between now and the end of the season, with Kaoru Mitoma (£5.6m) coming fifth.

If you are looking for a differential option, then our latest article recommends Alexis Mac Allister (£5.5m)check it out here.