3 July

GW32+ Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL explained

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

De Bruyne tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for Gameweek 32+ with an imperious performance against Liverpool. The Belgian took three shots in the box (SiB), two of which were ‘big chances’ and attempted a gameweek-high of five assists, two of which were also deemed ‘big chances’ leading to an xFPL score of 14.4. Antonio comes in second with an impressive xFPL score of 11.6. Playing up top, the midfielder took four SiB with two of them being ‘big chances’ and also attempted two assists. Aubameyang led the way for shots on target (SoT) (four), all of these were in the box and two were ‘big chances’ which led to an xFPL score of 9.0 for the Gabonese. B. Fernandes registered an xFPL score of just 8.8, as only one of his four shots were in the box.


2. Willian vs Pulisic

Chelsea dropped their first points since the restart against the Hammers, but their midfielders Willian (14 points) and Pulisic (eight points) still managed to rack up FPL returns. Using the Fix Heatmaps feature, the two are compared across the three gameweeks since the restart. A look at the Touch Heat Map indicates that the American is getting in more central areas and spending more time in the box compared to Willian, who is occupying more of a wide role on the right wing. Both have scored a similar number of points (26 to 22) but the Brazilian has been reliant on set pieces for his goals, with two penalties and one free kick. The penalties inflate his expected goals (xG) number (1.73) compared to Pulisic’s 1.22, with the American taking six SiB to his four. Willian is no doubt the more creative of the two, with 10 attempted assists to Pulisic’s two. Both look like excellent picks with the American slightly edging it due to his greater threat from open play.


3. Man. City attackers compared

Man. City have now scored 13 goals since the restart, five more than any other team. Their attackers are compared for the three gameweek period (GW30+-GW32+) using the Fix Comparison Matrix. It is immediately clear that De Bruyne is the jewel in the crown. The Belgian tops the comparison for minutes (279), FPL points (37), assists (two), shots (12), attempted assists (10) and xFPL points (33). Jesus numbers are quite poor considering he has played 218 minutes, the Brazilian has landed just two SoT and attempted just four assists, the lowest numbers across the board. This also explains why he also has the lowest xFPL score (eight). The midfielders are more difficult to split, Foden leads the way for SoT (six) with Mahrez and Sterling (three) some way behind. However, they both beat Foden in terms of creativity with six attempted assists compared to just four. In terms of xFPL it is close again with Sterling and Mahrez notching 21 each to Foden’s 17. Any of the three look like a great addition alongside De Bruyne, with the lower pricing of Mahrez (8.5) and Foden (5.3) making them more appealing than Sterling’s 11.7 price-tag.


Fantasy Football Fix