xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Watkins tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 31 so far with a score of 10.4. No player took more shots in the box (SiB) (six) or landed more shots on target (SoT) (four) than the Villa forward and he was also top for ‘big chances’ (BC) (two). Fernandes was unlucky not to register any FPL involvements, the Portuguese international was top for chances created (six) and also took four SiB leading to an xFPL score of 6.3. The gameweek’s third highest scorer with 15 points, Solanke registered one BC and also created two which led to an xFPL score of 8.6. Antony’s numbers caught the eye, the BrazilIan international took more shots (seven) than any player this week and notched an xFPL score of 9.8.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, with Chelsea, Man Utd, Brighton and Man. City all blanking in gameweek 32, it is natural to see the transfers ‘out’ dominated by assets from these teams such as Rashford, Haaland, Chilwell, Mitoma etc. Toney and Kane are the only fit and available players from the top eight ’transfers out’ with both forwards failing to find the back of the net in 31. Watkins and Eze are popular ‘transfers in‘ after their hauls in the same week and managers are also backing the Villa defence, with the likes of Mings and Moreno. Haaland to Jesus is the most popular forward transfer this week (26.1%) while the midfield transfers are more spread out with Rashford to Eze (4.0% the most popular. Alexander-Arnold is the most popular target in defence with Chilwell, Shaw and Henry making way. Johnstone appears to be the most popular goalkeeper for those on a Free Hit with over 20% bringing him in already.

Eze vs Olise

Eze and Olise have racked up the points since Hodgson took charge in gameweek 29, and their numbers are compared using our Fix Heatmaps feature. Eze has scored three goals compared to none for Olise and the ‘Expected Goals’ (1.08 vs 0.34) indicate that it was no fluke. It is, however, interesting to note that both have attempted the same number of SiB (three) but Eze has landed six SoT compared to just one for Olise. In terms of creativity though, Olise is ahead with 10 attempted assists to Eze’s six and also has a superior ‘Expected Assists’ (xA) figure (0.31 vs 1.41). Both look like great picks for Palace’s run in and also for a Free Hit in 32, but it looks like Eze is the more explosive pick.