xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Salah tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 30 with a score of 16.9. The Egypt international took 10 shots, was afforded four 'big chances' and landed three shots on target (SoT). Rashford captainers can count themselves unlucky, the 25-year-old took five shots in the box (SiB), three of which were 'big chances' and racked up an xFPL score of 11.6. Toney registered an xFPL score of 8.9 and was second for SiB (six), he was afforded two 'big chances' and landed four SoT but only scored four FPL points as a result of his penalty miss. Olise, March and Fernandes were joint-top for chances created (six) and registered xFPL scores of 9.4, 8.1 and 7.6 respectively.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Man. City's goalscorers against Southampton Grealish and Haaland top the transfer-ins for this week with nearly 300,000 managers bringing them in. Nearly 100,000 managers have brought in Martinelli with Mings and White seeing significant interest as well. Rashford, Shaw and Saliba who are all injury doubts going into gameweek 31 are being sold in droves with managers losing patience with Maddison and Toney as well. Moving either Maddison or Rashford to Grealish accounts for nearly 35% of all midfield transfers so far with Maddison to Salah also a popular move. Over 50% of all forward transfers involve bringing Haaland in with Toney, Havertz, Watkins and Kane making way. Eight of out of the top 10 defensive transfers involve selling Shaw with White, Martinez and Mings the top three targets.

Grealish vs Mahrez

Grealish has racked up more FPL points (78 vs 67) and minutes (1162 vs 841) than Mahrez since the restart but the Algeria international posts better underlying numbers per 90 as shown in the Fix Heatmaps image above. Mahrez averages more xG (0.22 vs 0.39), shots (2.04 vs 2.14) and attempted assists (2.01 vs 2.68) with Grealish beating him only for SiB (1.63 vs 1.50) and SoT (0.77 vs 0.64). Mahrez is definitively the more explosive option of the two but the fact that Grealish has started 87% of the games since the restart compared to just 67% for Mahrez means the England international currently looks the better replacement for Rashford.