As the deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign, and the importance of getting it right cannot be overstated.

In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 30.

BUY: Erling Haaland

• Cost: £12.0m
• Selected by: 73.0%
• Projected Points (Next 6 GWs): 39.1

With uncharacteristic clarity, Pep Guardiola was categoric in his assessment of Erling Haaland (£12.0m) at Friday’s press conference, stating that the Norwegian was available for selection at the weekend.

Despite his recent absence – due to blanks and injury – Haaland is still owned by 73% of managers across FPL but, according to Live Insight, this number drops right down to just less than 35% for managers in the Top 100k. If you are one of the managers who parted ways with the Manchester City striker, then you may want to get him straight back in your squad.

A quick delve into the Opta Stats Sandbox will tell you that Southampton have fewer clean sheets (4) all season than any other team in the Premier League, and have conceded 20 goals since the restart.

On the other hand, Haaland’s stats speak for themselves – he is top amongst all players for xG (21.12), shots in the box (84) and big chances (43). Even in recent times, when his capacity to earn FPL points has seemed slightly subdued, the attacking threat is still reflected in the underlying data.

In addition, Manchester City have decent upcoming fixtures, including a generous double – where they face Fulham and West Ham in Gameweek 34 – and are expected to double once more in Gameweek 37. A blank in Gameweek 32 will need to be catered for, but for those managers with a decent bench, or plans to Free Hit, this should be straight forward to navigate.