xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Willock tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 29 so far with a score of 12.1. The 23-year-old took four shots in the box (SiB), three of which were 'big chances' and landed two efforts on target. Jesus looked sharp on his return to the Arsenal starting line-up, the Brazil international took four SiB, three of which were 'big chances' and notched an xFPL score of 11.2. March owners can count themselves unlucky to get only five FPL points, the winger took six SiB, landed five shots on target (SoT) and also created three chances with an xFPL score of 9.4. Grealish's numbers stand out, the 27-year-old took three SiB and also created a 'big chance', his 8.3 xFPL score shows that his FPL haul of 12 points was fully deserved. No player created more chances than Saint-Maximin (six), the Newcastle winger was at his creative best with two 'big chance' involvements leading to an xFPL score of 6.9.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, assets from the table-topping teams Arsenal and Man. City are popular this week with Jesus, White, Grealish and De Bruyne all in the top five transfer-ins. The top-five transfer-outs all consist of players who are either injured or suspended such as Saliba, Foden and Haaland. Toney to Haaland is the most popular transfer combination (5.3%) this week with several managers moving early without any confirmation of the Norwegian international's availability. The above combination amounts to nearly 25% of all forward transfers thus far. In midfield, nearly 15% of transfers involve selling Saka for Fernandes, De Bruyne, Grealish or A. Pereira. Saka was benched against Leeds due to illness and is expected to start Arsenal's next game so this transfer is perhaps a tad suprising. In defence, Shaw and White are the most popular targets with Zinchenko, Saliba and Estupiñán making way.

Man. City midfielders compared

As the above image from our Fix Comparison Matrix shows, Grealish and Gundogan were the only Man. City midfielders to start each of their last five matches (they blanked in gameweek 28) and the England international has racked up the most minutes (431). He has averaged 2.2 attempted assists per game and 1.6 shots which have seen him rack up an average of 5.2 FPL points per game, which is second only to the unavailable Foden (6.8). Although his underlying numbers are not as strong as De Bruyne's or Mahrez, he seems to have made the left-wing spot his own and a great buy ahead of Man. City's great run of fixtures.