xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Mings tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 28 with a score of 11.8. The centre-back took two shots in the box (SiB) and also created as many chances, with a total of two 'big chance' involvements. Isak and Havertz were joint-top for shots in the box (SiB) with five each, the Sweden international registered two 'big chances' to Havertz' one and beat him for xFPL score 11.2 to 8.2. Murphy and Ward-Prowse were the most creative players with five attempted assists apiece, the latter significantly outscored the former for xFPL (4.8 vs 10.3) due to his well taken penalty. Chilwell was unlucky not to get any returns, only the aforementioned midfielders created more chances than his four, with the left-back registering an xFPL score of 3.9. The gameweek's highest scorer Saka took three SiB and attempted as many assists, he registered no 'big chance' involvements and notched an xFPL score of 7.2.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

As per the Transfer Analytics image above, Mitoma is the most bought player with over 100,000 managers already buying the Japanese international following gameweek 28‘s Friday deadline and his team-mate March has also seen 72,000 transfers. Isak is a popular option on the back of his brace against Forest with 78,000 managers bringing him in, while the duo of Rashford and Shaw are also being targeted ahead of their double gameweek in 29. It is worth mentioning that with both Man. Utd and Brighton winning their FA cup games, the two sides will blank in gameweek 32 along with Man. City and Chelsea. Almirón has been sold by 270,000 managers, and Saliba has lost suitors too, with the duo both suffering injuries. It is perhaps a little surprising to see single gameweeks players, Ødegaard, Kane and Saka being sold given their current form. Both North London sides face favourable opposition in gameweek 29. Managers should be a little wary about losing good FPL assets just because they do not double in gameweek 29.

Havertz vs Felix

Havertz and Félix both scored against Everton and the pair have both played similar minutes (477 & 462) over the last six gameweeks. As the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, both have scored two goals and also taken the same number of SiB (10 each) with Havertz (2.16 vs 1.96) slightly edging it for xG. However, that number is slightly inflated following the German international’s penalty against Everton. In terms of creativity, Havertz is significantly ahead with 11 attempted assists to four for Felix and has created three 'big chances' compared to zero by the Portugal international. With penalty duties in his locker and more routes to points Havertz looks to be the better option over Felix for those looking to invest in a Chelsea forward for their double in 29.