17 March

GW28 Buy, Sell, Keep

As the deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign, and the importance of getting it right cannot be overstated.

In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 28.

Caveat: This article was written on March 17th, prior to the Premier League press conferences.

BUY: Ollie Watkins

  • Cost: £7.4m
  • Selected by: 11.7%
  • Projected Points (Next 5 GWs): 26.5

Aston Villa’s season long stats don’t make for great reading but, since Unai Emery took charge in Gameweek 13, Villa’s attacking numbers have been on the up. In fact, according to the Opta Stats Sandbox, Aston Villa are ranked joint sixth (with Liverpool) for goals scored (25). Of those 25 goals, Ollie Watkins (£7.4m) has scored 8 of them, a vast improvement on the 2 he scored under Steven Gerard’s tenure.

With 7 goals in his last 8 appearances, Watkins is becoming remarkably consistent at finding the back of the net and, with great fixtures on the horizon – including a good double in Gameweek 29 – the planets feel like they are aligning for this transfer.

watkins heat map

Watkins spends much of his time in the box but has licence to roam the entire pitch - click here for Opta Player Heatmaps

It may even be argued that Watkins is a legitimate option for the armband this weekend, with captaincy potential split between a number of different candidates; Villa face Bournemouth, who concede 1.68 Expected Goals (xGC) per 90 minutes. That being said, Aston Villa do not create quite as many chances for Watkins as some of his main captaincy rivals and therefore Watkins tends to be the type of player who scores once but often, rather than hauling in a single game.