Caveat – This blog was written prior to the games on 4th March
Picks are always in the below format
- No.1 predicted by Fix
- Alternative high-ownership option. Over 20%
- Differential option. Under 20%
Raheem Sterling (MUN/SOU)
Sterling played only one of Man. City’s matches in gameweek 26 which bodes well for his starting prospects in the gameweek 27 double. Only Gündogan (11), Son (13), B. Fernandes (15) and Salah (17) have notched more goals amongst midfielders than the Englishman’s nine this season, while only Mané (56) and Salah (60) have registered more shots in the box (SiB) than his 43. His total of 16 ‘big chances’ is only bettered by Son (19) and Salah (22). Man. City top the goal scoring charts this season (56) and are also top for shots (418), shots on target (SoT) (152) and ‘big chances’ (79). Man. Utd have are ranked eighth for goals conceded this season (32) and 10th for shots conceded (303). Southampton have conceded 44 goals and only West Brom (55) have been more porous. The Saints are ranked 10th for SiB conceded (197) and 14th for ‘big chances’ conceded (54). Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 12.0 for Sterling.
Ilkay Gündogan (MUN/SOU)
Gündogan’s rest in the second game of gameweek 26 makes him one of the more likely starters in gameweek 27 as per our Predicted Lineups feature and over the last six gameweeks no midfielder has scored more goals (four) than the German. He trails only Sterling (six) and Salah (eight) for ‘big chances’ (five). The league leaders top all the attacking numbers over the last six gameweeks – goals scored (20), shots (109), shots on target (SoT) (45) and ‘big chances’ (23). Their first opponents, Man. Utd, have conceded five goals over the last six gameweeks and only Man. City, Brighton (each four) and Chelsea (two) have conceded fewer. However, they are ranked eighth for SoT conceded (22) and sixth for shots conceded (61). The German's second opponent Southampton have the worst defensive numbers in the league over the last six gameweeks, conceding 20 goals and keeping no clean sheets. They are ranked 20th for SoT conceded (37) and 17th for ‘big chances’ conceded (17). Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 10.3 for the German.
Michail Antonio (LEE)
Antonio found the back of the net against Man. City last weekend and over the last six gameweeks only Bamford, Richarlison (each three) and Jesus (four) have scored more goals than his two amongst forwards. His total of four ‘big chances’ is only bettered by Diagne, Richarlison, Werner (each five) and Jesus (seven) while only McGoldrick, Calvert-Lewin (each seven), Watkins (eight) and Bamford (nine) have landed more SoT than his six. As the Stats Sandbox shows, only Jesus (3.05) beats him for expected goals (xG) (3.05). The Hammers have scored 10 goals over the last six gameweeks and only Leeds (11), Man. Utd (16) and Man. City (20) have found the back of the net with more regularity. The London side are ranked sixth for SoT (28) and eighth for ‘big chances’ (12). Leeds have conceded nine goals over the last six gameweeks and only six teams have been more generous. They are ranked 15th for shots conceded (86) and 19th for SoT conceded (36). Our Fix Algorithm currently projects a point score of 5.5 for Antonio.