Lessons learned
13 March

GW27 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.


Benrahma tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 27 so far with a score of 10.4. The Algerian international took more shots (10) and shots in the box (SiB) (five) than any other player over the weekend and was also top for shots on target (SoT) (five). No player was afforded more 'big chances' than Haaland (three), the 22-year-old landed only one of his four SiB on target and notched an xFPL score of 7.9. Son was the weekend's most creative player with five attempted assists, the South Korean international also scored from one of his two SoT and despite no 'big chance' involvements, he registered an xFPL score of 7.1. No player registered more FPL involvements than Trossard (three), the Belgian international had three of his four attempted assists converted and also attempted one SiB, leading to an xFPL score of 9.9.

Early Transfer Trends


As the above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows, Chilwell is the most transferred-in player this week after attacking returns over the last two gameweeks. Kane and Watkins are also popular acquisitions after their goals over the weekend and Almirón is back in the frame as well after his goal off the bench. FPL's top scoring asset Haaland is the most sold player so far with Salah close behind, neither will feature in gameweek 28 but the latter does have a double in gameweek 29. De Bruyne and Mahrez are being sold after their benchings against Palace while Ødegaard is the only player in the top-eight transfer-outs who has a fixture in gameweek 28. Moving Haaland to Watkins is the most popular transfer combination this week, accounting for 8.7% of all transfers and 37.9% of forwards’ transfers. Alexander-Arnold, Estupiñán and Bueno are the ones making way for Chilwell amongst defenders. Maddison is the most popular target in midfield, accounting for over 20% of all midfielder transfer-ins.

Watkins vs Havertz


Watkins and Havertz are both excellent options with three fixtures over the next two gameweeks and as the above image from our Fix Heatmaps feature shows, the Villa forward has superior numbers with 2.92 'Expected Goals' (xG) compared to just 1.14 for the German international. He has also taken nine SiB compared to four for the Chelsea man, but it can be argued that Havertz has more routes to points with nine attempted assists to Watkins' two. In terms of 'Expected Goal Involvement' (Expected Goals + Expected Assists), it is fairly close between the two (3.02 vs 2.61). With Chelsea's upturn in form, it might be the right time to jump on Havertz with his numbers only expected to go up.

Fantasy Football Fix