1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

King tops the xFPL table due to his two penalty attempts, one of which was missed, but the standout performer of the gameweek was without a doubt Deulofeu who uncharasterically scored from all three of his shots on target (SoT) and assisted one of Deeney’s goals. No player attempted more assists than Snodgrass’ eight, and he also tops the table for ‘big chances’ created leading to a 9.1 xFPL score. Rondón took a whopping seven shots in the box (SiB) as three Newcastle assets (Rondón, Perez and Almirón) landed three SoT apiece, no doubt helped by the red card to Huddersfield’s Smith. Their new signing Almirón was particularly impressive, as he also attempted six assists and posted a xFPL score of 6.9.

2. The new manager bounce – Leicester City

The Foxes have parted company with Puel after failing to win a single game in any competition in 2019, one of only three teams from the top-four domestic leagues (92 clubs). Even though a new manager is yet to be appointed at the time of writing, the Foxes have historically shown an improvement in performances after the sacking of an unpopular manager, and with them being one of the few teams with guaranteed fixtures in gameweeks 27 and 31 it presents a great opportunity for investment. A look at the xFPL table for Leicester over the last six gameweeks reveals the standout candidates in each position – Vardy, Maddison and Pereira. Maddison has attempted a whopping 25 assists, 13 more than second placed Pereira who is marginally ahead on xFPL score. The Englishman also leads the way for shots with 22. Vardy is still clearly the talisman of the attack as none of their players were afforded more ‘big chances’ than his four and only Barnes (13) beats his 10 SiB. Given the Foxes play Brighton and Fulham at the King Power in two of the next three gameweeks it could be the right time to take advantage of their new manager bounce.

3. Scouting the Blank GW31/33 candidates

With Rashford’s injury likely to keep him out of the Palace game and confirmed blanks in gameweek 31 and 33, the replacement candidates who have fixtures in those weeks (Newcastle’s participation in gameweek 33 is contingent to Watford beating Palace in the FA Cup) are put under the microscope using the Fix Comparison Matrix. Rondón has the highest projections as per our Fix Algorithm as he leads the way for shots and assists, and faces Burnley, West Ham, Everton and Bournemouth in the next four, historically obliging defences. The Burnley forwards are also excellent candidates given their form of late, and Barnes marginally edges Wood with penalty duties and a cheaper price-tag. King has tough fixtures in the next two games as he plays Arsenal and Man. City but it might be wise to invest after those matches. Arnautovic did notch an assist in his cameo in gameweek 27 but fitness concerns remain until he strings together a couple of 90 minute games in a row. However, the Austrian is probably the most explosive of the forwards under consideration and could be a great differential for your mini-leagues.