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GW27 Buy, Sell, Keep

11 March 2023

As the deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign, and the importance of getting it right cannot be overstated.

In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 27.

Caveat: This article was written on March 10th, prior to the Premier League press conferences.

BUY: Solly March

  • Cost: £5.1m
  • Selected by: 8.6%
  • Projected Points (Next 5 GWs): 25.6

If you are a regular to the Buy, Sell, Keep feature, you will have seen that bringing in Ivan Toney (£7.6m) was our #1 transfer target in last week’s article. Such is true of Gameweek 27, although, lest we repeat ourselves, we shall explore the next best option. Enter, Solly March (£5.1m).

When it comes to Brighton assets, attention is automatically drawn to the midfield and three players stand out the most; Karou Mitoma (£5.5m) who passes the eye test and bagged a goal and an assist against West Ham in Gameweek 26; Alexis Mac Allister (£5.4m) who is on penalties and, like Mitoma, returned twice last weekend; and, finally, March, who despite blanking last week, is the top points-scoring midfielder from the Seagulls this season.

march heatmap

March has taken more shots (52) than any other Brighton player - click here for Opta Player Heatmaps

The three Brighton midfielders tend to share the points between them so, picking the right one could be more a matter of timing but, in terms of underlying attacking numbers, March pips the others to the post according to the Opta Stats Sandbox.

Since the restart, Mitoma edges the others in terms of xG – (3.01) compared to March’s (2.88) – but in terms of creativity no Brighton player can beat March’s xA (4.00) and, when you combine the two metrics (xG + xA), no other player comes close. In practical terms, March offers two main routes to points – if there’s to be a goal involvement, March is likely to be involved.

As has been widely covered, Brighton double in Gameweek 27, when they face Leeds (weather permitting!) and Crystal Palace, and again in Gameweek 29 when they go up against Brentford at home, followed by an away game at Bournemouth. A blank in Gameweek 28 means that managers need to consider their bench options, but March looks too good a pick to resist.