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GW25 Lessons Learned

Fantasy Football Fix 24 Feb. 2021

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Raphinha tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 25 with a score of 13.3. The Brazilian attempted a whopping 10 assists across Leeds’ two matches while also taking five shots. No player took more shots in the box (SiB) (six) or landed more shots on target (SoT) (five) than Cooper, three of these were ‘big chances’ which led to the centre-back registering an xFPL score of 12.5. Popular captain pick Bamford managed just three SiB which explains his low 6.2 xFPL score. H. Barnes posted impressive numbers ahead of double gameweek 26. The winger created four chances and took three SiB, notching an xFPL score of 6.9.

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2. Heavy hitter comparison

With as many as 14 teams featuring twice in double gameweek 26, managers have a difficult decision with regards to which heavy hitters to pick for the weeks ahead. Using the Fix Comparison Matrix, the double gameweek premium assets are compared over the last three gameweeks. B. Fernandes leads the comparison for goals (three), FPL points (28), assists (one) and SoT (five) and is as close to a must-have as it gets. Kane leads the way for shots (13) despite finding the back of the net just once. He has landed four SoT and been afforded two ‘big chances’ which is encouraging. Sterling and Salah are joint-first for ‘big chances’ (three) and have found the back of the net twice. Both have also managed the same number of SoT (four) as Kane, but Sterling beats them both for attempted assists seven to Salahs two, and Kane's four.

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3. Who are the form defences?

A lot can change in three gameweeks and using the Stats Sandbox feature the defensive numbers over the league are compared. Man. Utd (14) and Brighton (15) have conceded the fewest SiB, but have managed just one clean sheet between them out of a possible six. Man. City continue posting impressive numbers, topping the table for expected clean sheets (xCS) (2.14). Chelsea have been solid under Tuchel, conceding just 17 SiB in three matches, topping the table for expected goals conceded (xGc) (1.70). At the other end of the table, Palace have conceded the most SiB (42) with Everton in second (35). Villa are fourth-worst for SiB conceded (33) but have recorded two clean sheets out of a possible three. 

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