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GW24 Lessons Learned

Fantasy Football Fix 20 Feb. 2023

xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

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Ødegaard tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 24 with a score of 11.0. The Norwegian international attempted seven assists, two of which were 'big chances' and also spurned a 'big chance' to score. Fernandes was the only player to attempt more assists this gameweek (nine), the Portuguese international was top for 'big chances' created (three) this weekend and also took two shots in the box (SiB), leading to a 10.8 xFPL score. Nketiah's owners can count themselves unlucky, the Arsenal forward was joint-top for both SiB (five) and 'big chances' (two) and notched an xFPL score of 6.7. No player took more shots than De Bruyne (seven) but all of these attempts were from outside the penalty area. He did attempt four assists, two of which were 'big chances' and registered an xFPL score of 5.5.

Early Transfer Activity Analysed

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The above image from our Transfer Analytics feature shows managers are making their moves early for the double gameweek assets from Liverpool and Arsenal, while Man. Utd and Newcastle blank. After goals in consecutive gameweeks, Gakpo is the most transferred-in player with Salah in second. Saka is the only Arsenal player to make the top eight transfer-ins with Alexander-Arnold and Alisson in fourth and fifth. The Newcastle trio of Pope, Almiron and Trippier are the most sold players this week but it is perhaps surprising to see Rashford in fifth. It is worth noting that Man. Utd might still have another blank in gameweek 28 due to their involvement in the FA Cup while Newcastle have a confirmed fixture against Forest in gameweek 28. Moving De Bruyne to Salah accounts for 7% of all transfer activity so far with Shaw also seeing significant transfers out, for either Alexander-Arnold or Tarkowski. Transferring Fernandes to either Salah or Gakpo accounts for 7.8% of all transfers as well.

A look at the Toffees under Dyche

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Dyche has now been at Everton for three games and as the above image from our Stats Sandbox feature shows, the top performers have all been in defence, bar McNeil. No player has taken more shots than Tarkowski (five) over that period and at a price of just 4.3 he looks to be a great buy ahead of the double, with a confirmed fixture in blank gameweek 28 also to come. McNeil has attempted seven assists to Iwobi's eight but the former's 'Expected Assists' (xA) tally of 1.07 is significantly higher than the latter's 0.36 which indicates that he is the best Everton attacker to invest in.

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