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GW24 Differential Focus

14 Feb. 2023

If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.

In this article we look ahead to Gameweek 24 and find players from each position who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could reward their owners in the upcoming Gameweeks.

Caveat: This article was written on 14th February, with Manchester City vs Arsenal still to play

GK: Lukasz Fabianski

  • Cost: £5.0m
  • Selected by: 1.2%
  • Next Fixture: TOT (a)

If you are looking for a new goalkeeper, and would like to go down the differential route, then West Ham’s shot stopper Lukasz Fabianski (£5.0m) could make an interesting differential.

West Ham defensive assets are not highly owned due to a very poor start to the season. But things are looking up for The Hammers who now sit outside of the relegation zone and have only lost once in their last five matches.

According to Opta Stats Sandbox, West Ham are ranked third best for Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) over this same period, with only Brentford and Newcastle looking more solid.

chelsea west ham rotation

West Ham and Chelsea rotate well for defensive fixtures over the next five Gameweeks - click here for Rotation Planner

For owners of Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.5m), Fabianski rotates incredibly well over the next five Gameweeks for those managers who like to have more than one option between the sticks.

DEF: Max Kilman

  • Cost: £4.3m
  • Selected by: 2.5%
  • Next Fixture: BOU (h)

wolves defensive fixtures

Wolves rank second best for defensive fixture difficulty between Gameweeks 24 and 28 - click here for Fixture Planner

It would be a stretch to say that Wolves’ recent defensive numbers have been anything to shout about, but this must be looked at through the context of their recent fixtures, which have not been too kind.

Looking ahead, however, and there are few teams who have a nicer run of defensive fixtures than Wolves, and this includes a double in Gameweek 25 when a number of teams blank – see the Fixture Planner for more information.

At just £4.3m – and guaranteed to get minutes – Kilman could well be a valuable budget enabler in defence.

MID: Solly March

  • Cost: £5.1m
  • Selected by: 6.0%
  • Next Fixture: FUL (h)

Brighton fans bemoaned Graham Potter’s departure to Chelsea, and with good reason. Their former manager laid a solid foundation after years of hard work with the club, and the expectation in many circles was that his absence would send the Seagulls into a downward spiral.

But Brighton have gone from strength-to-strength under De Zerbi and continue to be a solid team with a sharp, incisive attack. One player who has impressed is Solly March (£5.1m). He is ranked 3rd amongst all players for xFPL Points (38.13) since Gameweek 19, with only the Manchester United duo of Marcus Rashford (£7.3m) and Bruno Fernandes (£9.9m) able to better him.

Owned by just 6% of FPL managers – and even lower amongst managers in the Top 100k (Live Insight) – March is a great differential with good fixtures on the horizon. A word of warning, Brighton blank in Gameweek 25 so those managers who are not planning on using their Free Hit, and already have a number of blanking players, may wish to hold back on this transfer for now.

But with a double Gameweek in 27, where they face Leeds and Crystal Palace, this may be a transfer to bookmark for the future.

FWD: João Félix

  • Cost: £7.5m
  • Selected by: 1.6%
  • Next Fixture: SOU (h)

felix vs havertz

Félix beats Havertz across most underlying stats per 90 minutes - click here for Opta Player Heatmaps

If you are the sort of manager who doesn’t mind taking a slight risk to get ahead of the curve then bringing in João Félix (£7.5m) early, may be a shrewd bit of business.

Chelsea have been extremely active in the transfer market and it is yet to be established if Graham Potter will be overwhelmed by his squad options, or be able to carve out a cohesive strategy for the remainder of the season. But the fact remains, he has high quality personnel at his disposal and Félix ranks highly amongst them.

With a goal against West Ham, during the early kick off on Saturday, Félix looked eager to make amends for the red card he received on his first competitive match for Chelsea. Indeed, his underlying statistics have looked impressive, with the Portuguese forward registering 4.5 shots per 90 minutes and an xG of 0.71, according to Opta Player Heatmaps.

Cautious managers may wish to wait and see, as such a small sample size can be misleading, not to mention that rotation could still be an issue. But those wishing to strike while the iron is hot, may wish to do so now.

By Matt Whelan

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