1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Salah once again tops the xFPL table, as both of his shots were considered ‘big chances’, with a very high probability of scoring. However, the standout performer of the weekend was arguably Jota, with four shots on target (SoT), leading to three goals. All of the Portuguese’s attempts were ‘big chances’ and only Schar (21) scored more Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points than his 19. Pogba continues to post impressive numbers, with seven shots, four of which were in the box and one attempted assist, leading to a xFPL score of 9.6. Rashford solidified his status as the league’s most in-form forward, with six shots, three of which were in the box, notching a xFPL score of 6.9. Sané scored from his only shot and had his only attempted assist converted, which explains his low xFPL score of 6.9.

2. The form team – Southampton

Since the appointment of Hasenhüttl, Southampton have picked up 10 points in their last six matches, with only Spurs, Man. City, Liverpool and Man. Utd racking up more. With budget options available across all positions, their xFPL scores for the same period are compared using the Fix Custom Stats Builder, and Redmond is the clear winner. Averaging over 5 xFPL points per game, the winger has attempted four assists, only behind Armstrong (eight) and Ward-Prowse (10), and taken more shots (nine) and shots in the box (five) than any team-mate. His FPL score of 28 also matches his xFPL score of 30.6, which indicates that he has not been overperforming or lucky. Ward-Prowse also appears to be an excellent option given his set-piece duties and budget price. Despite only one clean sheet, Bednarek posts an impressive xFPL score of 18.4, indicating that the Saints have been tight defensively, and is an absolute bargain at 3.9. Ings fares poorly on the table but he has played only 243 minutes out of a possible 540 so his numbers should be read accordingly.

3. Richarlison – stick or twist?

With 26% ownership at the time of writing, the Brazilian features in over a quarter of FPL squads, despite notching only 18 points in his last six gameweeks, an average of three. As the Fix Heatmaps feature shows, the Brazilian took 15 shots, second only to Pogba amongst midfielders, 14 of which were in the box but only four found the target. His low expected goals score of 1.52 is an obvious concern, indicating that he is not getting the same clear cut opportunities as he was previously. This is confirmed by his expected goals score of 2.67 between gameweek 12 to 17, nearly double. Our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 12.3 for the Brazilian for the next three favourable fixtures, the highest of any non ‘top six’ midfielder besides Sigurdsson, so patience is advised in the short term, especially if you don’t have the funds for a major upgrade.