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GW21: Buy, Sell, Keep

20 Jan.

As the deadline looms closer, it is time to decide what to do with our precious free transfer(s). Aside from playing chips or selecting a captain, our transfers are the single most important aspect of our FPL campaign, and the importance of getting it right cannot be overstated.

In this article we crunch the numbers, analyse the fixtures, take advice from the Algorithm, and decide which player to buy, which player to sell, and which player to keep for Gameweek 21.

Caveats: This article was written on 19th January, with the Man City vs Spurs fixture still to play. With double Gameweeks still to be announced, rolling the transfer may be the most sensible option in Gameweek 21.

BUY: Ivan Toney

  • Cost: £7.5m
  • Selected by: 24.7%
  • Projected Points (Next 5 GWs): 24.5 (10th)

Ivan Toney 2

Ivan Toney has scored 13 goals from 51 shots this season - click here for Opta Player Heatmaps

When a player’s good form runs in parallel with generous fixtures, this is usually a sign that the FPL Gods are offering their blessing. This happens rarely so it is wise to consider capitalising on it when it does.

At the moment, Ivan Toney (£7.5m) is the standout player who matches this criteria. While many managers will be seeking players from Manchester City and Arsenal – which are the only teams with a confirmed double in Gameweek 23 – it is often the single Gameweek players, with good fixtures and form, who deliver the points.

Using the Opta Stats Sandbox tool, we can analyse Toney’s goal output (13) versus his xG (12.58 – ranked 2nd best). The closeness between these figures demonstrates a sustainability to Toney’s goal threat, the appeal of which is increased by generous upcoming fixtures.

Indeed, this has been recognised by many an FPL manager. According to Transfer Analytics, Toney is the most transferred in player ahead of Gameweek 21, with close to half a million managers bringing him in.

toney transfers

The most popular transfer combination ahead of GW21 is Mitrovic -> Toney - click here for Transfer Analytics