4 Jan.

GW19-21 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

The xFPL table for the last three gameweeks is topped by two Man. United assets as the Red Devils scored nine goals in their last three games. Pogba and Rashford posted strong underlying numbers to back up their big Fantasy Premier League (FPL) scores, as the Frenchman led the way for shots on target (SoT) with nine, and Rashford trailing close behind with eight. Westwood attempted the most assists with 11, and appears to be bargain at 4.5. Mitrovic leads the way for shots in the box (SiB) with 14, with Rashford at 10. Even though Son registered 31 FPL points, his xFPL score of 17.0 indicates he over-performed, as he took only three SiB and attempted only five assists. Salah's shot volume is quite low, with only five SiB, the same as Van Aanholt, and both his goals were from penalties.


2. Heavy hitter comparison

A comparison of the heavy hitters using our Fix Comparison matrix shows that the top three, Salah, Kane and Hazard scored similarly with the Egyptian leading the way with 26. Sterling’s lack of goal threat is worrying as he appears to have turned provider rather than goal-scorer, leading the way with 10 attempted assists but firing just one SoT. Hazard attempted nine assists and landed five SoT, so was perhaps unlucky not to register more FPL involvements. Salah and Kane both registered four FPL involvements in the last three matches, with two goals and two assists for the Egyptian and three goals and an assist for Kane, cementing their place as the ‘must-own’ heavy hitters. Aubameyang’s five SoT and 11 shots, top on both metrics, is impressive considering these were across two matches as he had no attacking threat against Liverpool in gameweek 20, but with Chelsea and Man. City two of the Gabonese’s next four opponents, it might be wise to plan an exit strategy soon.


3. Budget forward comparison

With two goals and two assists, Rashford was by some distance the best performing budget forward over the festive period. As the Fix Comparison Matrix shows, only Mitrovic can match the Englishman’s eight SoT and it is only the Serbian who beats him for shots, with 14. He attempted 12 ‘penalty area actions’, head and shoulders above next best Jiménez with four. Arnautovic’s stats are impressive considering he played almost 100 minutes less than the other forwards. The Austrian landed four shots, attempted two assists and managed to score two goals. The underlying stats and the Fix Algorithm are in agreement – Rashford and Arnautovic look like the budget forwards to own going forward. 


Fantasy Football Fix