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GW18 Lessons Learned

Fantasy Football Fix 15 Jan. 2021

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Reguilon tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 18 with a score of 8.4. The left-back attempted two assists, both of which were deemed ‘big chances’ and also took two shots in the box (SiB). Despite failing to get any FPL returns, Son’s numbers were encouraging against Fulham. The Korean took four SiB, all of which were ‘big chances’, registering an xFPL score of 8.1. Aurier and Neto were the week’s most creative players with four attempted assists apiece, notching xFPL scores of 5.7 and 3.4 respectively. Benteke (six) led the way for shots, he landed just two of them on target, registering an xFPL score of 2.9.

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2. Man. City assets analyzed

Man. City have an enticing double gameweek in 19 and using the Stats Sandbox feature, their assets are compared over their last four matches. De Bruyne leads the way for FPL points (27) and xFPL (29.48) but the second and third spots for xFPL score are occupied by Cancelo (28.12) and Dias (22.84) which is a bit unexpected. Cancelo (six) trails only De Bruyne (12) and B. Silva (seven) for attempted assists and has taken four shots as well. Gundogan (22.31) and Foden (18.15) also post decent xFPL scores, the German (eight) trails only De Bruyne (14) for shots and is second for shots on target (SoT) (four) as well. Foden has racked up 26 FPL points in his three appearances, his five shots and six attempted assists indicate that he could be an explosive differential in double gameweek 19.

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3. Budget double gameweek mids

Using the Fix Comparison Matrix, the popular double gameweek midfielders at 6.5m and under are compared over the last six gameweeks. Averages are used as some of the players had fixtures postponed. Foden (7.0) leads the way for points per game (PPG) and goals (0.5). Cavaleiro scored a brilliant header in gameweek 18 against Spurs and leads the way for shots (2.3), SoT (1.3) and ‘big chances’ (1.0). Lookman’s numbers are quite similar, he has managed 1.8 shots, 1.2 SoT and 0.4 ‘big chances’. Soucek leads the way in the projections (23.6), the Czech midfielder has notched two goals in his last four matches and averages 1.5 shots, one SoT and 0.3 per match. 

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