Blog

24 Dec.

GW18 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), and expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location gives a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Lingard tops the xFPL table this week with a score of 12.2. The England international posted strong underlying stats to back up that number, with three shots on target (SoT), two of which were ‘big chances’. Son and Salah notched xFPL scores of 11.3 and 10.5 respectively as they matched the Man. United winger with three SoT, while no player had more this gameweek. Kane posted an xFPL score of 9.1 and took a whopping eight shots, five of which were shots in the box (SiB) and no player had more ‘big chances’ than his three. Aubameyang scored from both his SoT and attempted only one assist, registering an xFPL score of just 6.4. Hazard only managed two SoT and one attempted assist leading to a paltry xFPL score of 4.2. No player attempted more assists than Martial's five, but he registers an xFPL score of only 4.0 as none of these were considered 'big chances'.

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2. The new manager bounce – Southampton

The appointment of Hasenhüttl as the new manager of Southampton has seen the Saints pick up six points from their last two matches, scoring six goals in the process. With value across all positions, our focus is on their attacking duo of Redmond (5.2) and Ings (5.6) rather than Bednarek (3.9) and Valery (4.0), all of whom have started the last two matches. As the Fix Comparison Matrix shows, both Redmond and Ings post impressive stats to back up their Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points. No forward has scored more goals (three) than Ings or taken more SoT than his four. Redmond’s stats also catch the eye – the winger has taken six shots, and also attempted four assists. Armstrong (5.1) also posts impressive numbers with seven attempted assists and three goal attempts. Only Liverpool (16) have had more SoT than the Saints’ 13 over the last two matches, and only Spurs (seven) have scored more goals than their six. With the Hasenhüttl revolution truly underway at Southampton managers would be wise to take advantage of the value available in the Saints squad, especially as a porous West Ham defence are up next for the Saints in gameweek 19.

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3. The no Mourinho bounce – Man. United

The departure of Mourinho seems to have lifted the shackles off the Red Devils’ attackers as they scored five goals in a Premier League match for the first time since Sir Alex Ferguson’s departure and with Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle up next, their assets are the most transferred in this week. Pogba, Martial, Rashford and Lingard have all seen significant investment as can be seen via our Transfer Trends feature. Their stats for gameweek 18 are compared using the Fix Comparison Matrix below and there is not really much to separate them - all seem great options. Lingard scored two goals but it is worth mentioning that the second was a penalty, which he took instead of ‘designated’ penalty taker Pogba. The World Cup winner had both his assists converted, his third was from being fouled for the free kick which Rashford scored but he did not take a single SiB, indicating his returns were perhaps a bit fortunate. Martial tops the attempted assists stats with five, and was perhaps unlucky not to notch a bigger score. Rashford took the most SiB with three and looks to be a great replacement for Wilson, however, it remains to be seen whether he can retain his central striking berth when Lukaku returns from compassionate leave in gameweek 20.

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