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11 Dec.

GW17 Top Three Captaincy Picks

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

Caveat - Picks are in below format

  1. No.1 predicted by Fix
  2. Alternative high-ownership option. Over 20%
  3. Differential option. Under 20%

Jamie Vardy (NOR)

The league’s top scorer Vardy has scored 16 goals this season in as many matches. He is top amongst forwards for SoT (25) and ‘big chances’ (22) and trails only Abraham, Firmino, Maupay (all 40) and Jiménez (41) for shots in the box (SiB). The Foxes have scored 39 goals, the third-highest in the league. Their total of 240 shots is beaten only by Liverpool (258), Chelsea (274), Man. City (337). They are also ranked third for ‘big chances’ with 47. Only Southampton (35) have conceded more goals than Norwich’s 34 this season and they are also second-worst for ‘big chances’ conceded (43). No team have allowed opponents more SoT than their 96. Our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 8.1 for Vardy.

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Mohamed Salah (WAT)

Salah got on the scoresheet as Liverpool routed Bournemouth 3-0 in gameweek 16. The Egyptian also chipped in with an assist to amass a total of 13 points. The Liverpool attacker looks to be fully over the ankle problem that has been plaguing him in recent weeks and only Sterling (eight) and Mané (nine) have scored more goals than his seven amongst midfielders this season. He is top for shots (47) and shots on target (SoT) (23) amongst midfielders and only Mané (15) and Sterling (16) have been afforded more ‘big chances’ than his 12. As the FPL Statistics feature shows, his ownership has dropped significantly in the top 100k, so he is almost a differential. Liverpool have scored 40 goals this season, only Man. City (44) have been more prolific. The Reds only trail Man. City for both SoT (101 to 111) and ‘big chances’ (52 to 66). Watford have conceded 30 goals this season, only Norwich (34) and Southampton (35) have conceded more. They have allowed opponents 39 ‘big chances’ and only Brighton (40), Southampton (42), Norwich (43) and West Ham (54) have been more obliging. Our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 7.7 for Salah.

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Dele Alli (wol)

With three goals and three assists since Mourinho took over in gameweek 13, Alli is the league’s form player, and has 33 points in the last three gameweeks as per the Stats Sandbox feature. The Spurs man will be looking to continue that momentum as his side travel to Wolves in gameweek 17. Over the last four gameweeks, only Pulisic, Mount (both 12) and De Bruyne (16) have taken more shots than Alli’s 10 amongst midfielders and he leads the way for SoT with six. He also created seven chances over this period. No team have scored more than Spurs’ 12 goals over the aforementioned period and their total of 23 SoT is beaten only by Man. Utd, Liverpool (both 25), Man. City and Leicester (both 26). They have fashioned 14 ‘big chances’ with only Leicester (20) creating more. Their opponents Wolves have conceded 19 goals this season, keeping just four clean sheets. They have allowed opponents 59 SoT and 24 ‘big chances’. Our Fix Algorithm projects a point score of 3.7 for Alli. 

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