Agüero will be hoping to get back on the score sheet, after a quiet game against West Ham in Gameweek 13, where he fired just one goal attempt during the 4-0 away win. The Argentine has been directly involved in 14 league goals this season, with 13 of them coming at the Etihad giving him five more goal involvements on home turf than any other player has managed. As the table shows, no player has taken more than his 29 shots inside the box (SiB) or his 12 efforts on target (SoT) during home matches this season. Over the last five gameweeks, only Salah (6), Sané (7) and Sterling (8) have been directly involved in more goals than Agüero (5), while no player has taken more than his 14 SiB or been involved in more than his seven big chances. Man. City have fired in 27 goals across their seven league matches at the Etihad this season, which is 12 more at home than what any other team has managed. In their last three games against the Cherries, the Champions have scored a whopping 13 goals, and have in fact never lost a match against Bournemouth in the Premier League era. The Cherries have lost a bit of momentum after a strong start, and only Burnley (51) and Newcastle (47) have allowed opponents more SiB over the last four gameweeks. Our Fix Algorithm backs Agüero to get back to scoring ways, with a point score of 7.5.
After opening the scoring against Watford last weekend, Salah has now played a hand in six goals in his last five league appearances, scoring four times and producing two assists. Nine efforts on target by the Egyptian international during that period (the last five gameweeks) ranks him joint-first amongst midfielders, with only Kane (10) producing more across all positions. Salah’s total of 12 'big chances' this season ranks comfortably top amongst midfielders, with premium alternatives in Sterling and Hazard having been involved in six apiece. Liverpool have scored 14 goals in their six home league matches this season; behind only Chelsea (15) and Man. City (27), with Salah directly contributing to 50% of those (five goals and two assists). In the last three Merseyside derbies at Anfield Liverpool have scored eight goals, winning two and drawing one of those matches. Although Everton’s defensive stats have improved in the last four matches, with only four teams conceding fewer SiB than their 24, goals are usually on the cards at Anfield with Liverpool’s home games seeing an average of 2.5 goals scored this season. The Reds will be looking to bounce back from their Champions League disappointment in midweek, and our Fix Algorithm expects Salah to be at the forefront, with a point score of 7.2.
The goalless draw with Crystal Palace last weekend saw Martial’s run of five games with consecutive goals come to an end, but the Frenchman has been directly involved in seven of Man. United’s last 10 league goals (six goals, one assist). Over the last six gameweeks, Martial has produced an impressive average of 9.5 points per game, which ranks second best across all positions and only Sterling has narrowly provided more (9.6). During the same period, it is again only Sterling who has weighed in with more Fantasy Premier League (FPL) goal involvements (eight vs. seven), while no midfielder has produced more than Martial’s 10 SoT, matched only by Salah. 13 SiB by the 22-year-old in that time can only be bettered by Paterson (14) and Salah (15) amongst midfielders. Despite their recent troubles in front of goal, Man. United have recorded a total of 19 'big chances' in their last six matches and only Man. City (20) and Chelsea (22) have produced more during that period. Southampton lie in the relegation zone, losing to Fulham in gameweek 13, and only Cardiff (26), Burnley (27) and Fulham (33) have conceded more goals than the Saints’ 24. Their defensive stats make for poor reading with 121 SiB conceded, the fifth worst in the league. Southampton are yet to register a win on home soil this season conceding eight goals in their six home matches, and it would be a huge upset if this was anything other than a resounding Man. United win. Our Fix Algorithm backs Martial to add to Saints’ misery, with a point score of 4.8.
Zaha recovered from a hamstring strain to lineup against Man United last weekend during Crystal Palace's 0-0 draw at Old Trafford and he managed to take four goal attempts and provide two attempted assists, including one 'big chance' created. The Ivory Coast international has been directly involved in five of the eight goals scored by Crystal Palace this season giving him a 62.5% goal involvement, and his side have failed to score in either of the two games without him. 16 SiB by the 26-year-old this season ranks first amongst his Crystal Palace teammates, beating Van Aanholt (12) and Benteke (10), while only Townsend (18) has provided more than his 15 attempted assists. The Eagles have faced some tough opponents in their last six matches but started the season with a more favourable run. Across the first seven gameweeks Zaha returned an average of 4.5 PPG and his total of four FPL goal involvements was only bettered by Arnautovic (five), Mitrovic (six) and Wilson (seven) amongst forwards priced at 8.5 or below. He could have hardly asked for more obliging opponents given that Burnley have conceded 270 shots and 40 ‘big chances’, more than any other team in the league. Only Fulham (33) have conceded more goals than the Clarets (27), and our Fix Algorithm expects Zaha to get attacking returns, with a point score of 3.3.
Crystal Palace kept their fourth clean sheet of the season last weekend during a goalless draw with Man United at Old Trafford. With strong underlying defensive numbers Wan-Bissaka has picked up a total of nine bonus points this campaign and only Keane (11), Robertson (13) and Alonso (14) have amassed more amongst defenders. Impressively, the right-back has attempted more tackles (50) and made more successful net tackles (18) than any other FPL defender this season, while only Balbuena (31), Sol Bamba (35) and Zanka (36) have made more interceptions than his 30. During home matches this season only five teams have conceded fewer SiB than Crystal Palace's 40 and only Chelsea, Leicester (both with 20), Man. City (14) and Liverpool (11) have allowed opponents fewer SoT than the Eagles' 21. Only Cardiff (33), Brighton (33) and Fulham (30) have attempted fewer SiB than the Clarets’ 34 on the road, and only Huddersfield have created fewer ‘big chances’ with four. Our Fix Algorithm predicts a high probability of a Palace clean sheet, and a point score of 4.2 for the young English full-back.
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