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2 Dec.

GW14 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Alli continued his resurgence under Mourinho with two goals in gameweek 14, topping the Custom Stats xFPL table with an xFPL score of 12.5. No player registered more than his three shots on target (SoT) or five shots in the box (SiB) this week and he also leads the way for ‘big chances’ with three. De Bruyne was the week’s most creative player with six attempted assists. The Belgian tops the table for shots (six) and registered an xFPL score of 9.1, beating Sterling’s 6.4. No player created more ‘big chances’ than Son’s three and the Korean also took two SiB leading to an xFPL score of 8.5. The week’s most picked captain Vardy scored from his only SoT, notching an xFPL score of 5.1 and Mane fared even worse with an xFPL score of 4.6 only.

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2. Son vs Alli

Spurs have now scored six league goals under Mourinho and their two midfielders Son and Alli have registered a total of seven Fantasy Premier League returns over that period. Using the Fix Heatmaps feature, the two are compared and there is no clear cut winner. Alli clearly beats Son in terms of goal threat, with an xG (expected goals) figure of 1.52 to 0.60 and five SiB to three. A look at the shotmaps also shows that Alli’s shots are from a more central position in far more threatening areas with Son taking most of his shots from a wide position. However, it appears that Son has taken on more of a traditional winger role under Mourinho. He’s clearly doing more defensive work, his tackling numbers are double that of Alli’s (eight to four) which is very good for his bonus point prospects. He has attempted seven assists to the Englishman’s three and completely destroys him for xA 0.35 to 2.12. The five ‘big chances’ created explains why his xA is so high. At 8.5m versus 9.8m for Son, Alli appears to be the more explosive option and is a serious differential as well at under 5% ownership at the time of writing. However, Son is also a great pick as he appears to have more routes to pick up points and has not blanked in the last five league fixtures. Both have risen in price by 0.1 already since the gameweek 14 deadline and you can track further price movements using our Price Predictor feature. 

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3. How did the Abraham replacements do?

A hip injury to Abraham saw the Englishman shipped out by over 900,000 managers ahead of gameweek 14 and the most popular replacement options as per our Transfer Trends feature are compared using our Fix Comparison Matrix. Ings tops the comparison both for SoT (two) and attempted assists (two) and given his budget price combined with Southampton’s fixture run, he looks an excellent pick. Jimenez leads the way for shots (four) but could land only one on target. However, he was playing against one of the league’s best defences in Sheff. Utd. so that has to be taken into account as well. Rashford leads the way for ‘big chances’ and is the most expensive forward of the lot but his next two games against Spurs and Man. Utd are off-putting. Mousset has displayed incredible consistency over the last few weeks taking his total to four goals and three assists over the last six matches. He took two shots and attempted two assists as well. Like Ings, he looks like an excellent pick given his price tag and Sheffield Utd’s kind run of fixtures.

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