1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Holgate tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 13 with a score of 12.0. The centre-back scored his first goal for Everton, racking up 14 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points. No player took more shots this week than El-Ghazi (eight), but the Egyptian was very wasteful and only landed three shots on target (SoT). However, he did attempt five assists, helping him to notch an xFPL score of 5.4. His team-mate Grealish was the week’s most creative player with six attempted assists. He also took four shots in the box (SiB), also registering an xFPL score of 5.4. Despite failing to register any attacking returns, De Bruyne’s numbers were impressive. The Belgian attempted five assists, two of which were ‘big chances’ and also took two SiB, racking up an xFPL score of 8.0.

2. Heavy Hitters compared

Only Son registered attacking returns amongst FPL’s most popular premium assets in gameweek 13, and using the Fix Comparison Matrix for the last four gameweeks their numbers are put under the microscope. Salah leads the way for goals (three), FPL points (35) and SoT (eight), indicating he is still one of the best players in the game. De Bruyne is top for assists (three), shots (15), attempted assists (13), ‘big chances’ (three) and xFPL (35), which indicates that he should have had more FPL points than the 31 he has notched during this time. Despite taking just three shots in the last four gameweeks, Son is third for FPL points (30) and with favourable fixtures coming up these numbers should improve further. Kane has taken 12 shots, landing just four SoT, but like Son, he has been defying these underlying numbers and has racked up 25 FPL points.

3. Team attacking numbers analysed

Using the Stats Sandbox, the attacking numbers for the last four gamweeks are compared and Man. City come out on top for expected goals (xG) (8.10). Despite taking the most shots (69), they are in fifth for SoT (20), which once again illustrates a problem with their finishing so far this season. No team has scored more goals (nine) than Man. Utd over the last four gameweeks and only Man. City (15) have fashioned more ‘big chances’ than their 12. Leeds continue to impress, leading the way for SoT (26) and trailing only the Manchester sides for ‘big chances’ (with 10). Southampton’s numbers bode well for their upcoming double gameweek 19. The Saints are sixth for xG (5.38) while only Man. City (252) have racked up more FPL points than their 192 over the aforementioned period, so their assets should be considered, especially with games against Fulham and West Ham in the next three.