A home fixture against the leakiest defence in the league sees last year’s golden boot winner feature as the headliner for this week’s picks. Salah has provided nine Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements this season, returning five goals and four assists in 11 league matches, at an average of 6.1 points per game (PPG). But he has averaged an even more impressive score of 8.4 PPG at Anfield scoring in four out of five home matches and only failing to score against Man. City. As the table shows, No midfielder has taken more than Salah’s 14 shots inside the box (SiB) during home matches this season, while only Pogba has fired more shots on target (SoT) with 12 to 9. Four big chances by the Egyptian international looking at the same criteria (home matches) is on par with Sterling and no midfielder has had more than the pair. Liverpool have averaged 9.5 SiB per game this season which is just behind Chelsea (12.2) and Man. City (14.0). Fulham have conceded 29 goals so far this season, the worst in the league and 16 of these have been in their six away games. Only Burnley (44) have allowed more shots at their goal (38) and have allowed more ‘big chances’ (22) on the road than Fulham’s 20. In a fixture that has all the ingredients for some to opt for the triple captain chip, our Fix Algorithm predicts a gigantic point score of 10.0 for the Egyptian.
The stats show how much Kane loves a London derby and it is that coupled with strong underlying numbers that sees him back in our top five fold, as Tottenham secured a 3-2 win over Wolves in gameweek 11 which saw Kane get back on the score sheet, putting away his sixth league goal of the season. He now only trails Agüero and Aubameyang amongst forwards, with the pair having fired seven goals apiece this season. The 25-year-old put in some very strong underlying numbers last weekend, taking a total of eight shots, five SiB and six SoT, more than any other player during the gameweek on both accounts. Over the last five gameweeks Kane has taken a league-high total of 11 SoT, beating Agüero (10), Arnautovic (nine) and Wilson (seven). Five ‘big chances’ from the forward in that time ranks joint-fourth, beaten only by Wilson (eight), Agüero (eight) and Morata (seven). Palace have the worst home record in the league, and with 10 goals conceded in their last five games, our Fix Algorithm backs Kane to add to their woes with a projected point score of 5.4.
A fitting namesake for Arnie, as he is back (again!) in a leading role for gameweek 12. The Austrian recovered from illness to return double-figures against Burnley last weekend as West Ham secured a 4-2 win. He has now been directly involved in seven goals during nine appearances this season, averaging 5.6 PPG. The Austrian international has fired a total of 15 SoT at an average of 1.7 per game, ranking joint-first amongst forwards alongside Kane and narrowly beating Agüero’s average of 1.6 SoT per game. Over the last four gameweeks, Arnautovic has fired off eight SoT from only three appearances which only Morata and Pogba can rival with nine. His total of nine SiB during that period is level with Kane and Salah while only Agüero has taken more with 10. West Ham have taken an impressive total of 40 SiB over the last four gameweeks and only Man. City (46) and Chelsea (56) have managed more in that time. Huddersfield kept only their second clean sheet of the season against Fulham in gameweek 11, and the Terriers have conceded a total of 21 goals, and only Cardiff (24), Burnley (25) and Fulham (29) have performed worse. Just four sides have allowed more SiB than Huddersfield’s 47 at home, and our Fix Algorithm backs Arnautovic to take advantage, with a point score of 4.3.
The Manchester derby this weekend features last year's most frugal defence against the most formidable attack, but if last season's 2-3 scoreline is anything to go by, this promises to be a goalfest. D. Silva found his third league goal of the season during the 6-1 win over Southampton last weekend. As the heatmap shows, he has now been directly involved in five goals across six home matches, averaging 6.8 points per game at the Etihad. The Spaniard’s total of eight SiB over the last four gameweeks is just two fewer than Agüero (10) and only Martial (nine) has taken more amongst midfielders priced at 8.5 or below. 12 attempted assists by D. Silva during that time is on par with Hazard and Sigurdsson while only Willian has provided more, with 15. The current champions have scored a league-high total of 33 goals this season, while producing more SiB (154) and ‘big chances’ (42) than any other side. Man. United have conceded six goals in their last four matches and only Brighton (48) and Burnley (58) have allowed opponents more SiB during that time (43). Only Fulham have kept fewer clean sheets than the Red Devils, and they look unlikely to keep the champions out. Our Fix Algorithm predicts a point score of 4.0 for the Spanish magician.
Dubbed the “Scottish Roberto Carlos” by his fans, Robertson features as the standout defensive pick this week, and with good reason. Liverpool boast the strongest home defence in the league this season having kept four clean sheets in five league matches at Anfield. Just behind them are Man. City who have kept three clean sheets from their six games at the Etihad. Klopp’s side have conceded just one goal, three ‘big chances’, and 20 SiB during home matches, bettering every other team in each area. Robertson has weighed in with seven attempted assists in four home matches and only Salah has provided more amongst Liverpool teammates, with 11 in five. When compared with other defenders, only Mendy and Digne (three) have created more ‘big chances’ than the Scottish left-back (two) during home matches this season. The 24-year-old has picked up 33 FPL points at Anfield this season and only Alonso has been able to match that during home matches with no defender returning more than the pair. Fulham have registered just 16 SoT in their six away matches and only Burnley (15), Cardiff (13) and Brighton (12) have managed fewer. Less than half of their eleven goals (five) have come on the road, and our Fix Algorithm projects Liverpool to have the highest probability of a clean sheet this weekend, and a point score of 6.5 for Scotland’s Carlos.
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