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GW12 Lessons Learned

Fantasy Football Fix 14 Dec. 2020

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Schlupp tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 12 with a score of 11.0. The Ghanaian took three shots in the box (SiB), two of which were 'big chances' and he also attempted two assists. No player took more shots than Maddison (six), the Leicester midfielder landed three shots on target (SoT), registering an xFPL score of 7.8. Sigurdsson led the way in terms of creativity with six attempted assists and he also scored a penalty, leading to an xFPL score of 10.3, the second highest this week. 

gw12lessons2020xfpl

2. Jota replacements compared

Jota has been ruled out for six weeks with a knee injury and using the Fix Comparison Matrix, the replacement options are compared for the last four gameweeks. Bowen comes out on top for FPL points (23), shots (14), attempted assists (11) and xFPL (20). It is worth mentioning that just one of his 14 shots were SoT, which is not ideal. Soucek has registered just one fewer FPL point (22) than Bowen over the last four gameweeks, and the Czech beats Bowen for SoT (two) and 'big chances' (two) but has taken just five shots in the last four matches. He is significantly cheaper than Bowen and the cash saved can be used for upgrades elsewhere. He is reliable for minutes too, having played every minute of the season so far. There is not much to split Neto and Podence, both Wolves midfielders post similar numbers and identical xFPL scores (19). Ward-Prowse comes in second for attempted assists (nine), the Saints midfielder has taken just two shots in the last four matches and seems dependent on set-pieces for his returns. 

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3. Cheap defenders compared

With the gameweeks coming thick and fast, it is important to have a full-playing squad and budget defenders are likely to play a big role. Using the Stats Sandbox, the numbers of defenders at 5.0 or under are compared for the last four gameweeks. Bednarek leads the way for xFPL score (19.1) and is second only to Ogbonna (27) for FPL points (24). Dier (21) and Stones (20) come in third and fourth for FPL points, both centre-backs have registered three clean sheets in the last four gameweeks and the former has taken four shots to the latter's one. Only Dallas and Bartley (five) have taken more shots than Dier in this comparison. Coufal (seven) leads the way for attempted assists with Targett, Dallas, Justin and Robinson joint-second with five.

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