Blog

11 Nov.

GW12 Lessons Learned

By Fantasy Football Fix ()

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

A defender tops the xFPL table for the second week running with Holgate notching an xFPL score of 11.0. The Toffees’ man created a ‘big chance’ and took two shots in the box (SiB), one of which was also deemed a ‘big chance’. No player landed more shots on target (SoT) than Wood’s four and he also tops the table for ‘big chances’ with four, notching an xFPL score of 7.0. Rashford’s xFPL score of 10.5 is impressive as well, the striker took more shots (seven) than any other player this week and was afforded three ‘big chances’. Popular Fantasy Premier League (FPL) options Jimenez and Martial each attempted four assists but landed only one SoT apiece, notching xFPL scores of 8.9 and 7.8 respectively.

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2. Time to dis-Mount?

Owned by over 33% of all FPL teams at the time of writing, Mount’s form has dipped a bit after a strong start to the season. As the Fix Heatmaps feature shows, since Pulisic returned to the starting lineup in gameweek 10, the Englishman has registered only nine points compared to the American’s 37. The underlying numbers indicate that this was not a random event. In terms of shot volume, the two are similar with Mount taking 12 shots to Pulisic’s 14, but 12 of the American’s shots were in the box compared to just three for Mount. He has also landed 10 SoT compared to Mount’s three and his expected goals figure of 2.37 is nearly three times that of Mount’s (0.84). He has even attempted more assists, beating Mount six to five. Assuming he recovers from his injury, Pulisic appears to be the go to option in Chelsea’s midfield but Mount is arguably more nailed on for minutes given the lack of competition in the no. 10 role, whereas Pulisic has to compete with Pedro and Hudson-Odoi. Chelsea play a lot of fixtures in December and their Champions League group is far from decided but Pulisic’s numbers indicate that a switch might still be profitable.

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3. Leicester’s defence

Leicester kept their third consecutive clean sheet as they saw off Arsenal in gameweek 12 and the Foxes have now kept the opposition out five times, the joint-highest in the league. As the Stats Sandbox Team stats for the last three gameweeks shows, only Everton (nine) restricted opponents to fewer SiB than Leicester’s 11 and only the Toffees allowed fewer shots (17) than their 26. They also have the highest xCS (expected clean shees) for that period with 1.56. They have great options across their backline but Pereira at 6.3 does not seem worth the price-tag, as he has only attempted one assist compared to eight for Chilwell over the last three gameweeks. Evans arguably has the most goal threat of the lot, with five shots and is only 0.2 more than the popular Soyuncu. Either way, investment in Leicester’s defence seems essential given their kind run of upcoming fixtures. 

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