xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

Saka tops the Custom Stats xFPL table for gameweek 10 with a score of 15.2. The 21-year-old took four shots in the box (SiB), two of which were 'big chances' and landed three shots on target (SoT). The gameweek's highest FPL scorer Cancelo scored from his only shot and also created three chances. However, he did not have any 'big chance' involvements which explains his relatively low xFPL score of 10.3. Haaland took five SiB, two of which were 'big chances' but landed only one on target, notching an xFPL score of 5.4, one of his lowest this season. No player created more chances than Mount (five), the Chelsea midfielder is thriving under Potter and also took three SiB leading to an 8.2 xFPL score. Scamacca was top for 'big chances' (three) and joint-top for both SiB (five) and SoT (three), the Italian international could have had a much bigger haul as his 8.1 xFPL score shows.

The Defences to target

With only six gameweeks to go till the league pauses for the World Cup and managers get unlimited transfers, it is important to target hauls against teams that are struggling defensively. As the above image from our Stats Sandbox feature shows, Fulham are by far the worst team in the league for 'Expected Goals conceded' (xGC) 19.65 and they are also 19th for SiB conceded (99). Leicester (24) and Forest (22) are 20th and 19th for goals conceded and the xGC backs that up as well with the duo sitting 18th and 19th. After the fixture with Wolves in gameweek 11, Forest play Brighton, Liverpool, Arsenal and Brentford who all have FPL relevant assets worth owning. Bournemouth are an interesting one, a lot of their xGC (13.70) numbers were clocked under Parker and only Man. City (five) have kept more clean sheets than the Cherries (three). They are ranked ninth for xGC (4.57) over the last four matches so they are perhaps not a defence to target. Palace being 16th for xGC (13.35) is surprising but that has a lot to do with their difficult fixture run so far and their defensive numbers should improve from here on.

Trent replacements compared

With Alexander-Arnold looking likely to miss gameweek 11 and Liverpool struggling defensively, his replacement options are analysed using the Fix Comparison Matrix. Cancelo and Trippier are the top two scoring defenders in FPL and both have excellent underlying numbers to back it up. R. James was benched against Wolves and though rotation is a concern, his underlying numbers of one shot per game and 0.3 'big chances' created indicate that he is worth the rotation risk. Beyond these three, it is slim pickings for attacking defenders. Perisic has seen a lot of rotation and unlike R. James, his underlying numbers of 0.3 shots per game and 1.3 attempted assists indicate he is not worth the rotation risk. The Hammers have tightened up at the back and Cresswell could be a good option, he averages 1.8 attempted assists per game, second only to Trippier (2.0).