GW9 success pretty much came down to one thing… Did you captain Salah? If so, you’re flying high! If not, you’re like me and really can’t be bothered to think about FPL right now. Nonetheless, we have myths to try and bust ahead of GW10.

Bernardo Silva is an underappreciated FPL asset?

We need to start thinking about Arsenal assets?

Should we consider Mason Mount?

Livramento is the best enabler in FPL?

It’s time to sell Raphinha?

Bernardo Silva is an underappreciated FPL asset?

Manchester City defeated Brighton 4-1 away from home in GW9, a Brighton side who have had a consistently strong defence for well over a year now. As with all FPL seasons, City’s form is making us ponder who to bring into our sides. The one issue that we have is Pep-roulette and who is likely to get minutes. One player who is potentially going under the radar is Bernardo Silva. Not only is he starting games, but he is also racking up some very solid underlying statistics.

Of all Manchester City midfielders and attackers so far this season, Bernardo Silva is leading for minutes, having played 669 of a possible 810 (82.6%). He looks to have nailed down a spot in the midfield, having started the last 8 Premier League games, offering both creativity and most importantly to Pep a very strong press.

Surprisingly over the course of the last 6 GW’s, only Mo Salah has a higher xFPL points value on Fantasy Football Fix than Bernardo Silva, higher than the likes of Joao Cancelo, Sadio Mane, Jamie Vardy and Cristiano Ronaldo. In the past 6 weeks, Bernardo has the 3 highest xA behind only Ivan Toney and Bruno Fernandes along with the 2^nd most passes in the final third behind his teammate Joao Cancelo.

xFPL points GW4-9 using Opta Stats Sandbox

Although Bernardo Silva is not the sexiest pick, he can certainly plug a gap in your team up until Christmas if you’re big on xMinutes. I do believe it is true that he is underappreciated as an asset with only 2.3% ownership within the top 1m players, but for me I would be picking Cancelo, Dias, KDB, Jesus and Foden ahead of him.

We need to start thinking about Arsenal assets?

After a fantastic 3-1 victory in the Friday night game over Aston Villa, Arsenal have dragged themselves back in to the top half, having started with 3 defeats, 9 goals conceded and 0 scored. I think it is fair to say that the Gunners have turned a corner in recent weeks! Arsenal's attacking numbers have been very strong in this time, having scored 10 goals (4th most), along with an xG of 10.19 (5th), and accumulated 102 shots (4th) in that time as well. Defensively, they have been even better, giving up the 2nd lowest xGC between GW4-9 with 5.57 behind only Manchester City (4.73), keeping 3 clean sheets in the process.

It could be argued however, that the turn in form is to be expected purely based on the Gunner's fixtures. Over the last 6 GW’s, according to the Fixture Analyser, Arsenal had the strongest run of games defensively and the 2nd best from an attacking point of view. Playing Norwich, Burnley, Spurs, Brighton, Palace and Villa in that time frame. Injuries also played their part, Ben White and Gabriel were missing for the Chelsea and Manchester City games in GW2-3, and right back Takehiro Tomiyasu had not been signed at the time. I think investing in a defender will yield strong returns throughout the season, whatever the fixture run looks like.

Aubameyang stats GW1-3 vs GW4-9 using Player Heatmaps

An attacking player that can seriously be considered based on the lack of clear premium talent this season is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The Gabonese striker is fairly priced at £10m and has scored 4 goals and assisted 1 in his past 6 fixtures. The difference in stats (per 90) between GW1-3 and then GW4-9 are staggering, clearly when a nice run of games comes along, he becomes a solid option.

Defensively a player like Ben White will be great value through the season, picking up good bonus when Arsenal keep clean sheets based on his passing stats. The attacking players like Saka, ESR and Aubameyang will be good options during favourable fixture runs. Therefore, it is a fact that we need to seriously consider Arsenal assets in FPL.

Should we consider Mason Mount?

Off the back of a classy hat-trick vs Norwich in GW9, Mason Mount is the most transferred in player of the week, with over 400,000 transfers in (as of Tuesday evening). Is the hat-trick a sign of things to come? Or was it purely a case of the best possible fixture? For me, the best thing to analyse is Mason Mounts time at Chelsea under current manager Thomas Tuchel, last season Mason Mount had the 2nd highest xFPL points for Chelsea under Tuchel behind only Cesar Azpilicueta.

Chelsea xFPL points GW19-38 2020/21 using Opta Stats Sandbox

Mason Mount is having a fantastic start to the season with regards to underlying statistics, amongst players with over 400 minutes played, he has the 4^th highest xFPL per 90 with a total of 6.73. He also has the highest xA per 90 for the same dataset, similarly for players with over 400 minutes played, Mount has the 3^rd highest xGI90 behind only Michail Antonio and Mo Salah. For only £7.5m, he looks like an absolute bargain, I am saying that it is fact that Mount should be under serious consideration long term.

Livramento is the best enabler in FPL?

Valentino Livramento scored his first professional goal at the weekend in the 2-2 draw vs Burnley. He is proving to be incredible value in FPL, having started the season at £4m, he has now risen to £4.4m. Over the past 6 GW’s, despite playing in a poor Southampton defence, Livramento has managed to score and assist and rack up the 4^th most FPL points for a defender in that time.

Of players priced £4.5m or less, Livramento has the 5^th highest xG (0.58), the 2^nd highest xA (1.1), the 2^nd highest FPL points (36) and the highest xFPL (39.02). The numbers are truly incredible for an 18 year old full back who most had not heard of until the season began.

When comparing Livramento to the elite defenders in the league, he still has very strong underlying statistics. With regards to expected FPL involvements (xG+xA), Livramento has the 5^th highest value in the whole division behind the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Reece James and Joao Cancelo.

Expected FPL involvements (Defenders) using Custom Stats Builder

In my opinion, it is a clear fact that Tino Livramento is the best cheap enabler in FPL. For anyone that does not currently own the Saints defender, you should be looking to get him in ASAP!

It’s time to sell Raphinha?

Raphinha is clearly the talisman in this Leeds side, he was fantastic last season and has continued to be very strong in this one, being the top scoring for the Yorkshire club with 32 points and 3 goals so far in 2021/22. However, Leeds do sit in 17^th with only 1 win in 9 fixtures. In the past 5 fixtures, Raphinha has only managed to play the full 90 minutes in one game, with reoccurring injuries affecting the Brazilian's ability to get game time and pick up points. The fact that the winger also appears to now be a key player for the Brazilian national team will affect his game time going forward too.

The major reason not to sell Raphinha this week is the fact they play Norwich. The Canaries have conceded 23 goals so far this season, with the 2^nd highest xGC of 16.51. If there is ever a week to take a punt on a player that might be injured it is surely this week. The Brazilian was also not used in the 2-0 loss to Arsenal midweek in the Carabao Cup, unless we get a clear message that he is out then it’s a hold for me!

Goals conceded stats (Norwich) using Opta Stats Sandbox

However, between GW11-20 after the Norwich fixture, Leeds do have the 2^nd worst attacking fixture difficulty list. So for me, it’s a hold for this week and then a sell if the injuries and lack of minutes continue. 

Luke Boarer

FPL Irons