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GW1 Lessons Learned

Fantasy Football Fix 8 Aug. 2022

1. xFPL review

xFPL is calculated primarily using expected goals (xG), assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) involvements (xG + xA = xI), as well as expected clean sheets (xC). These numbers are a result of underlying statistics (i.e. shot type and location will give a probability of scoring = xG). xFPL is the combination of these statistics and factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected FPL point score.

gw1lessonsxfpl

Haaland tops the Custom Stats xFPL table with a score of 12.4, the Norwegian international was top amongst all players for shots (five), shots in the box (SiB) (five) and 'big chances' (four). No player created more chances (seven) or 'big chances' (two) than Harrison but the 25-year old attempted no shots which led to a low xFPL score of only 5.9. Darwin was ranked eighth for xFPL (8.0) despite only a substitute appearance, the Uruguayan international took four SiB, three of which were 'big chances'. Son (four) took more shots than Kane (two) but neither were afforded any 'big chances' which led to xFPL scores of 5.5 and 3.3 respectively.

2. How did the 8.0 midfielders fare?

gw1lessons8m

Kulusevski (13) top scored amongst the 8.0 midfielders but the numbers in the Comparison Matrix above were generally poor across the board. Foden did not attempt a single shot and only created two chances with the right-wing role perhaps denting his appeal. Saka took three shots but created no chances while Mount also offered nothing creatively and attempted even fewer shots (two). Kulusevski's numbers were decent, the Swedish international created three chances and took two shots which should see him secure the spot in the short term over Richarlison. Maddison's underlying numbers were impressive, the 2–year-old was top for shots (six) and attempted assists (five).

3. Bailey vs. Neto

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Bailey and Neto were popular budget options going into gameweek one and the Touch map from our Opta Heatmaps feature indicates that Neto’s performance was far more encouraging. He was involved in all areas of the pitch while Bailey was largely isolated on the right-wing. A look at the numbers in the below image shows Neto took three shots to Bailey's one and notched 0.18 'Expected Goals' (xG) to the Jamaican international's 0.04. Neither posted great numbers but are worth holding for at least one more week with favourable fixtures in gameweek two.

gw1lessonsneto2

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