FPL Transfers: Timing, Strategy & Risk

This article is part of our Top 50 Series, analysing how the best-performing Fantasy Premier League managers from 2024/25—and the All-Time Top 50—navigated the season.

Transfers are one of the most important tools at an FPL manager’s disposal. Each Gameweek brings one free transfer, with the option to roll it over if unused—while any additional moves come at a four-point cost.

This section explores how the top-performing managers approached transfers across the 2024/25 season: when they made them, what influenced their decisions, and how often they were willing to take hits.

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When did the Top 50 make their Transfers?

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When Did the Best Managers Make Transfers?

The data reveals that the most successful managers consistently delayed their transfers until the final 0–48 hours before the deadline. Both the Top 50 and All-Time Top 50 groups favoured making changes on Saturday, whereas the All FPL group were more active on Friday—with a broader spread of activity across the week.

Delaying transfers offers several key advantages:

• Injury and Rotation Updates: Late transfers allow managers to assess midweek fixtures and avoid bringing in players who may have picked up knocks or are rotation risks.
• Press Conference Insight: Most Premier League teams provide fresh team news on Thursday or Friday, often clarifying injury doubts or rotation concerns.
• Fixture Postponements: With postponements still an issue in recent seasons, holding off until closer to the deadline gives managers the best chance of reacting accordingly.
  

Did the Top 50 make transfers before Price Rises?

Price Changes: Less of a Priority?

Despite the ever-present threat of price rises, the Top 50 managers missed out on a price increase 58.3% of the time when bringing in players—almost identical to 2023/24. The All-Time Top 50 fared similarly, missing rises 61.3% of the time, though this was a slight decrease from the previous year.

This highlights a clear preference for up-to-date information over chasing early-week rises. However, with Haaland's record-breaking £15.0m price tag and fewer underpriced players in the game, All-Time greats were perhaps a little more willing to react early than in previous years.

Did the Top 50 make transfers before Price Falls?

What About Price Drops?

Interestingly, over 43% of the time, both top groups were content to hold onto players despite an impending price fall. Only 14.5% of the Top 50 and 16.3% of the All-Time Top 50 proactively sold a player before a drop. This is consistent with 2023/24 and reinforces the idea that they value tactical timing over short-term team value preservation.

Did the Top 50 sign players with low ownership (differentials)?

Were They Buying Differentials?

All three groups showed a strong preference for players with under 20% ownership. This indicates that differentials remain a key part of success at the highest level. However, it's worth noting that 58.2% of teams were inactive by the end of the season (not making a transfer in 5+ Gameweeks), which may have skewed ownership stats—making certain players look like differentials when they weren’t among active squads.

How many points had Transfers scored in the previous gameweek?

Did They Chase Points?

Not at all. The most common previous Gameweek score of players being transferred in was just 2 points. This suggests top managers were unfazed by short-term blanks and instead focused on underlying stats, upcoming fixtures, and longer-term value rather than chasing last week's hauls.

How often were players transferred out with Injuries?

Were Injuries a Major Factor?

Interestingly, injuries were a less prominent trigger for transfers this season. Only 24.0% of the Top 50 transferred out injured or doubtful players, down from 40.1% the season before. The All-Time Top 50 were slightly higher at 24.9%, but still a drop compared to previous years—further showing patience and measured decision-making.

How many hits did the 2024/25 Top 50 take?

How many hits did the All Time Top 50 take?

How many hits did All FPL take?

How Often Did They Take Hits?

Transfer hits were used sparingly. 26% of the Top 50 took no hits all season, with 22% taking just one hit. In contrast, the most common total for the All-Time Top 50 was 4 or 5 hits (32% of managers fell into that range).

When Were Hits Most Common?

The most popular Gameweek for hits was Gameweek 29, where Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, and Newcastle had no fixture. For those not playing a Free Hit, taking a hit to field 11 players was an easy decision.

The second spike came in Gameweek 33, where Arsenal, Aston Villa, Palace, and Man City all played twice. A huge 72% of the Top 50 and 60% of the All-Time Top 50 activated their Bench Boost chip this week, so hits to either convert single-game players into doublers or ensure a strong bench made strategic sense.

Key Takeaways

The transfer behaviour of the best managers reveals a clear pattern:

• Patience pays — delaying until late in the week is now the norm.
• Price changes are secondary to team news and fixture clarity.
• Hits are only taken when there's a clear strategic upside.
• Differentials matter, but ownership data must be considered in the context of inactive teams.
• Form and fixtures beat last week's points.

The best managers treat transfers like investments—low risk, high reward, and always based on evidence over emotion.

The Elite XI: Team Reveal managers share over 80 Top 10k finishes between them.

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