Gameweek 1 squads are built around three core principles: fixtures, player prices, and pre-season analysis. The FPL assets on our watchlists are coming out of their period of rest and into the revealing world of pre-season friendlies. Here are 10 things you should be looking out for in pre-season:

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#1. Kevin De Bruyne’s absence

With Kevin De Bruyne (£10.5m) set to miss an undefined period of the 2023/24 season with a hamstring issue picked up in the Champion’s League final, it will be worth keeping an eye on the impact his absence has on the Manchester City squad in pre-season.

Not only will his absence impact the shape of the preferred starting line-up (as much as such a thing exists under Pep Guardiola!) but it will change the dynamic of the team significantly.

Last season, De Bruyne was (proportionally) responsible for most of the creative activity on the pitch for Manchester City. According to Opta Stats Sandbox, he was responsible (amongst City players) for creating 1.15 big chances per 90 minutes (the next closest was Jack Grealish (£7.5m) with 0.52). His xA was 0.50 per 90 (best), he created more final 1/3 passes (728) than any other player, and racked up the most assists (18).

It is worthy of note the effect De Bruyne has on Erling Haaland (£14.0m). Apart from goal output, which is actually slightly better, Haaland’s underlying attacking stats all suffer when De Bruyne is not on the pitch, with the number of shots, shots on target, and shots in the box, all being reduced by roughly 25%.

#2. Mount’s effect on Bruno

The consensus amongst Manchester United fans seems to be that Mason Mount (£7.0m) has been brought in to play the number 8 role. However, if this is not the case then there could implications for Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m) who can play in a variety of positions, yet excels (certainly from an FPL perspective) in the number 10 role.

If Erik ten Hag plays a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation, then you would expect Mount to replace Christian Eriksen (£6.0m), which could actually boost Bruno’s prospects as an FPL asset. If, however, there’s evidence of Mount in the number 10 role, then it may be worth re-thinking Fernandes as an asset.

#3. Emergence of £4.5m playing forwards

With most FPL managers opting to steer clear of any formation involving a front three, all eyes will be locked onto any budget forward who gets regular minutes.

There are currently no nailed-on forward options at the £4.5m price point, but pre-season may reveal options in this sought-after bracket. Two possible options are Aston Villa’s Cameron Archer (£4.5m), who performed well for Middlesbrough last season, and Arsenal’s Folarin Balogun (£4.5m) who could be a great option if he can bag a loan or permanent move elsewhere in the Premier League.

#4. Calvert-Lewin’s fitness

In what fans would describe as a bizarre period in the club’s history, Everton have spent the last two seasons flirting with relegation. The appointment of Sean Dyche helped them narrowly avoid the drop last season and was perhaps the best possible solution to the Toffee’s problems.

Dyche offers a direct, pragmatic and no-nonsense approach and undoubtedly his appointment will see Everton’s prospects improve, particularly after a full pre-season together. With few experienced focal points at his disposal, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) is likely to be a key factor in Everton’s fortunes next season. The big question is: will he be able to stay fit?

If yes, he could be one of the standout bargains of the season after a price drop to £6.0m. Aerial threat. Penalties. Good opening fixtures for Everton. Keep your eye on Everton’s pre-season campaign, which kicks off on Friday against FC Stade Nyonnais.

#5. First choice GKs

Most FPL managers do not wish to spend precious transfers on a goalkeeper – outside of a Wildcard – and so picking your Gameweek 1 keepers should be seen as a long-term commitment.

Last season seemed rife with goalkeeper uncertainty and the start of the 2023/24 season is set to be even worse. With new goalkeeping arrivals such as Mark Flekken (£4.5m), Guglielmo Vicario (£5.0m) and Bart Verbruggen (£4.5m) – as well as Manchester United’s seemingly imminent signing of André Onana – finding out who is (or isn’t) first choice will be crucial to saving those precious free transfers.

#6. Chelsea’s preferred XI

Chelsea has fantastic opening fixtures (arguably the best) from an attacking perspective and so early adoption of their attacking assets could allow FPL managers to bag some returns early in the season.

The problem is that wholesale changes to their squad, and the appointment of a new manager, makes predicting their starting XI an academic exercise. Even if we knew what their initial line up was going to look like, it is impossible to tell if their assets will gel in the early stages.

Keeping an eye on Chelsea’s pre-season tour of the USA, could reveal the playing formation of assets such as Christopher Nkunku (£7.5m), Raheem Sterling (£7.0m) and Nicolas Jackson (£7.0m). In addition, it will be revealing to see how popular FPL assets Reece James (£5.5m) and Ben Chilwell (£5.5m) line up under Pochettino, who is likely to deploy the defenders as full backs rather than wing backs.

#7. Regular minutes for Foden

For many seasons, Manchester City has produced one of FPL’s biggest dilemmas. Their ability to create, and finish, high-quality chances make them an FPL points magnet. Last season, their FPL assets produced a combined total of 2,051 points (ranked 1st).

The problem is that the richness of depth to their squad makes them prime candidates for rotation and Phil Foden (£7.5m) nears the top of the ‘frustrating assets’ list. It is clear to anyone with eyes in their head that Foden is one of the most exciting young attackers in world football, yet last season he only managed 1,843 minutes of football, ranking him 14th in terms of minutes played amongst City assets. Despite this, he was City’s 2nd most prolific scorer, bagging 11 goals and 7 assists.

With İlkay Gündoğan having moved to La Liga giant’s Barcelona, Kevin De Bruyne potentially missing the start of the season, and established City midfielders Bernardo Silva (£6.5m) and Riyad Mahrez (£7.5m) rumoured to be leaving, perhaps this could be the season Foden sees regular starts.

#8. Liverpool’s engine room

Pre-season will be key to analysing how Liverpool’s new-look midfield will operate and the impact this will have on the rest of the squad.

Recent acquisitions Alexis Mac Allister (£6.0m) and Dominik Szoboszlai (£7.0m) could feature in an unorthodox 3-2-2-3 formation, and the usually predictable front-three now have a multitude of options with Diogo Jota (£8.0m) and Cody Gakpo (£7.5m) battling for places with Darwin Núñez (£7.5m) and Luis Díaz (£7.5m).

#9. Set piece duties

It is always good practice to keep tabs on which players are on set-piece duties, as these can change from season to season.

Of particular interest are clubs who have signed – or lost – players who typically deal with free kicks and/or penalties. For example, Mac Allister, who moved from Brighton to Liverpool in the summer, is unlikely to take penalties off Mohamed Salah (£12.5m), but his departure leaves a question mark as to who will now take them at Brighton.

Likewise, Kai Havertz (£7.5m) has moved to Arsenal and therefore leaves Chelsea without an established penalty taker. This could open up opportunities for FPL managers who are paying attention to pre-season.

#10. New and hybrid player roles

Klopp and Guardiola are often hailed as pioneers of modern football and an interesting tactical development is their simultaneous utilisation of a defender in a hybrid-midfield role.

Both Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.0m) and John Stones (£5.5m) were pushed forward towards the end of last season, allowing the former to fully explore his insane passing range and to create more defensive-splitting, long-range passes, while the latter can use his dribbling ability to create more space in the middle of the park.

These new roles, if continued, will create the FPL holy grail of reliable, point-scoring assets being playing out of position (OOP), and able to benefit from clean sheets despite playing in an advanced role.

By Matt Whelan

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