With over half of the FPL season gone, and a brief respite from FPL until January 13th, we take a look at the extreme end of player performance data. One of the most notable aspects of this season is that it has been characterised by huge swings in variance related to underlying data, with many key FPL players either under, or over, performing.

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In this article, we analyse data from the last eight Gameweeks to find out which players have been under-performing against their expected data, which have been over-performing, and which have been pretty much in line with expectation.

Underlying data explained

In order to analyse the underlying data, we need to use a metric to capture this. At Fantasy Football Fix, we prefer to use the compound metric Expected FPL Points (xFPL Points).

xFPL is calculated using Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA), which combine as Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Involvements (xG + xA = xI). It also incorporates Expected Clean Sheets (xCS), appearance and bonus points. This metric translates these underlying statistics (i.e. shot type/location giving a probability of scoring = xG) into an overall expected FPL point score (xFPL).

We can compare this data to their actual FPL points score to determine whether a player should have done better than they did, given the opportunities they have had (under-performance), or when a player has done better than would be expected given the quality of the chances they have had (over-performance).

How this data is interpreted requires context and, in most cases, is a personal decision to make, with many nuances to consider.

Top 10 under-performers

Assessing under-performing players can be useful, as it can offer insight into players who are performing well, despite not earning FPL points. FPL managers who do not utilise underlying statistics can sometimes overlook – or sell – perfectly good options, just before they start converting their chances. In most cases, and given enough time, players will eventually come in line with their underlying statistics.

Using the Opta Stats Sandbox, we have put together the above list of the top 10 biggest under-performers so far this season. As we can see, the most under-performing player in the last eight Gameweeks is Joachim Andersen (£4.9m). Clean sheets have not been happening for Crystal Palace, although Andersen’s xGC for the same period was 1.98, which accounts for a large chunk of this discrepancy.

Perhaps the least surprising name on this list is Darwin Núñez (£7.4m) who has under-performed his expected points by almost 15. Apart from his Egyptian team mate, no Liverpool player has a better xG (4.19) than Darwin, yet the Liverpool forward has only managed to score a single goal in that same period. The 13.5% of managers who own him (Live Insight) can rightly feel aggrieved.

Manchester United fans will, by now, have got used to their side’s lack of cohesion. While many United players have seemed disinterested of late, there is one player always performs at 110%. No Manchester United player can get near to the number of Attempted Assists (22) by Bruno Fernandes (£8.2m), but these opportunities are not being converted into the requisite goals. With just one assist and no goals in this time frame, Bruno ranks sixth on the under-performance list.

It would appear that emulating last season’s form, while competing in Europe, has been too much for a Newcastle side which has endured a myriad of injuries without sufficient squad depth. Arguably the player who has suffered the most is Kieran Trippier (£6.8m). Once regarded as one of the best defensive sides in the league, Newcastle have endured a torrid period, conceding a devastating 15 goals in their last six games. Still owned by over a third of FPL managers, Trippier has personally been at fault for a number of these goals. But going forward, the English full back has also disappointed owners. Like Bruno, Trippier remains Newcastle’s best provider, however, of his 71 crosses into the box, only 20 have been successful, and Trippier has only managed to accrue a single assist since Gameweek 13.

Top 10 over-performers

It is equally important to assess when players are over-performing. As with under-performers, those who are scoring from low-quality opportunities will eventually find that their performance comes back in line with what is expected. Of course, we may see a player who just has a gift for scoring long-range screamers, but this is the exception rather than the rule. Generally, over-performance is not sustainable over a season.

Two players who have recently enjoyed a huge spike in interest from FPL managers are Mohammed Kudus (£6.9m) and Richarlison (£6.9m). The former has managed an impressive 4 goals and 2 assists from a combined xG and xA of just 2.16. The latter has managed to score five times from just 7 shots on target. Beware of these players, as they may have enjoyed a temporary patch which will soon come to an end.

Sean Dyche has rightly received plaudits for Everton’s recent resurgence, but the underlying data seems to suggest that they might have been a touch lucky to earn 4 clean sheets in a period where their Expected Clean Sheets (xCS) was just 2.14. Consequently, Jordan Pickford (£4.5m) makes the over-performers list.

Lower down on the list are three of the more popular assets, Cole Palmer (£5.6m), Ollie Watkins (£8.9m), and Son Heung-min (£9.8m). Of the three, Palmer’s over-performance has been the most surprising; he has bagged six goal involvements from a combined xG/xA of 3.92. The latter two have consistently over-performed all season and so perhaps it is simply time to admit that they are highly clinical players.

Players most in-line

FPL is not all about those players who are about to explode and/or the superb finishers for whom everything is going their way. To be successful in a campaign, we must also include those players who we can rely on to go out onto the pitch and do the job we expect.

As a result, we have included, for your reference, all players who are within 1 point of their expected data. Solid options who will deliver when we expect them to and maintain consistency across the season.

By Matt Whelan

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