Last week’s differential picks summed up Fantasy Premier League in a nutshell. There were highs, lows, and everything in between — sometimes all in the same match.
Forest’s Anderson delivered the upside we chase when backing low-owned players, banking Defensive Contribution (DEFCON) points, and maximum bonus points for a tidy seven-point return. On the flip side, his team-mate Neco Williams, who we also put forward, saw his Gameweek unravel with a red card.
That’s the differential game — high risk, high reward, but often the clearest path to climbing the ranks. With that in mind, here are five under-10%-owned picks for Gameweek 25, backed by fixtures and data.
Our strategy balances attacking potential with defensive coverage:
⚽ 3 attacking player – midfielders or forwards
🛡️ 2 defensive players – defenders or goalkeepers
This ensures coverage across the pitch while prioritising FPL points, essential for Gameweek success.
West Ham may still be scrapping near the bottom, but performances have picked up. They were unlucky in a narrow 3–2 defeat to Chelsea last time out and had won three consecutive matches in all competitions before that.
Despite the Hammers’ inconsistency, Bowen remains one of the most reliable attacking assets in FPL. He is the fourth-highest scoring forward with 113 points, as shown in the Opta Stats Sandbox.
The 29-year-old England international has featured in 24 league matches, scoring eight goals from 6.79 expected goals (xG), while also contributing creatively with three assists. With Summerville now finding the back of the net and the arrivals of Taty and Pablo adding further attacking options, there is increased likelihood of Bowen improving his creative output.
Bowen has also taken over penalty duties following Paquetá’s departure, further strengthening his appeal. With fixtures against Burnley (A), Man United (H) and Bournemouth (H) up next, West Ham rank second for attacking fixtures over the next three Gameweeks according to the Fixture Planner — giving their main man a strong platform to continue driving the Hammers’ survival push.
Crystal Palace have struggled for goals in recent Gameweeks, but Sarr’s underlying involvement remains highly encouraging. The Senegal international is averaging 4.36 points per game, the second-highest in the Palace squad, behind only Muñoz (5.75).
✅ Averaging 4.36 points per game — 2nd highest for Palace
— Fantasy Football Fix (@FantasyFootyFix) February 2, 2026
✅ Took the penalty vs Forest
✅ BHA (A) • BUR (H) • WOL (H)
✅ Still only 2.1% owned
✅ Just £6.3m
Is Ismaïla Sarr on your FPL watchlist? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/UDRoGUHoUi
Sarr has scored four goals from 23 shots, with nine classified as ‘big chances’ by Opta. That volume is reflected in a solid xG of 5.82, suggesting he has been slightly unlucky not to return more.
His creativity is also quietly ticking along: 14 attempted assists, three of which were classed as ‘big chances’, generating an xA of 2.14 — despite registering just one FPL assist so far. The underlying data points strongly towards further attacking returns.
The 27-year-old also stepped up to take a penalty against Forest, and with Mateta’s starting spot now uncertain following a failed January move and a potential knee operation, Sarr could remain first-choice from the spot.
Palace face Brighton (A), Burnley (H) and Wolves (H) next — a run that offers an opportunity to rediscover their attacking rhythm. While they have scored just 25 goals, the joint third-fewest in the league according to the Opta Stats Sandbox, their xG total of 41.12 actually ranks eighth overall. If regression to the mean kicks in, Sarr’s return from AFCON could be the key to unlocking it.
It’s quietly becoming one of the surprise stories of the season. In what is to be his final year at Old Trafford, Casemiro is enjoying his most attacking FPL campaign in a Manchester United shirt.
The 33-year-old Brazilian has made 22 appearances, scoring five goals and providing four assists. The 2022/23 season previously marked his best attacking return, when he scored four goals and registered four FPL assists.
His shooting output supports that threat, with 32 attempts and five ‘big chances’, while an xG of 4.41 closely mirrors his actual returns. Notably, 18 of his shots have come inside the box, as shown by his Opta shot map — compared with just 16 across the whole of last season — highlighting his increased attacking licence.
Casemiro also offers multiple routes to points. He has registered four FPL assists and leads all Man United players for defensive contributions with 208, averaging 9.45 per match. He has also collected 14 bonus points, bettered only by B. Fernandes (23).
With United facing Spurs — who have conceded 10 goals in their last five matches without keeping a clean sheet — Casemiro presents an intriguing differential option for managers willing to take the plunge.
This recommendation is primarily fixture-based, but Milenković’s underlying numbers still justify interest. The Serbian centre-back has started all 24 league matches, helping his side record five clean sheets so far.
While he hasn’t delivered attacking returns, his defensive output stands out. That is reflected in a strong DEFCON score of 204, averaging 8.5 per game, bettered only by Andersen (334) among players for the Tricky Trees.
With fixtures against Leeds (A) followed by Wolves (H), this run suits Dyche-style football perfectly — organised and compact, with a reliance on defenders who rack up DEFCON points away from home and are well placed to keep a clean sheet in the home fixture.
If you’re hunting clean-sheet upside, Andersen stands out this week.
Across 23 league appearances, he has helped secure five clean sheets, while also posting an impressive DEFCON score of 235 — the fourth-highest among defenders in the league.
Everton visit having scored just 11 away goals, the third-fewest in the league, while managing only 32 shots on target on their travels, the second-worst record.
As a result, Andersen and Fulham are given a 40% chance of a clean sheet in Gameweek 25 according to the Predicted Points & Stats tool — bettered only by Chelsea and Arsenal.
These five differentials combine low ownership, strong underlying data, and favourable fixtures, making them ideal options for managers looking to gain an edge in Gameweek 25.
Whether it’s Bowen’s penalties, Sarr’s growing responsibility, or Andersen’s defensive reliability, each pick offers a clear route to upside — without following the crowd.
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