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Gameweek 21 FPL Differential Focus

11 Jan. 2024

If you are the sort of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager who enjoys going against the grain – or takes satisfaction from finding hidden gems before the crowd – then lowly selected players (differentials) can often provide value and offer a source of points which won’t be shared by many other managers. As long as the player picks are justifiable, differentials can give you an edge over your mini-league rivals.


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In this article we look ahead to Gameweek 21 and find players from each position who are currently selected by less than 10% of managers, but could reward their owners in the upcoming Gameweeks.

DEF: Alfie Doughty

  • Cost: £4.5m
  • Selected by: 2.7%
  • Next Fixture: BUR (a)

Doughty Heat Map

Of the newly promoted sides, most impartial observers (myself included) expected humble Luton Town to struggle the most. In reality, they are ranked above their former Championship rivals, despite having a game in hand. Furthermore, they are nipping at the heels of more established sides such as Everton, Brentford, Nottingham Forest, and Crystal Palace (although for the former, it must be acknowledged that they are working against a 10-point deduction).

Alfie Doughty (£4.5m) has been a vital cog in Luton’s surprising season and has shocked many with his creative numbers down the left-hand flank. According to Opta Stats Sandbox, Doughty is ranked second best for crosses (148) and successful crosses (41) with only Kieran Trippier (£6.7m) managing more (52).

In the last five Gameweeks, Doughty has managed five goal involvements, and a clean sheet, meaning he has both form and fixtures on his side as Luton travel to Turf Moor for a key fixture against relegation rivals.

MID: Richarlison

  • Cost: £6.9m
  • Selected by: 8.6%
  • Next Fixture: MUN (a)

Predicted Points GW21+

When Harry Kane bade an emotional farewell to his childhood club, the onus fell upon Son Heung-min (£9.8m) to step up and provide the firepower for Postecoglu’s new-look side. He has done this remarkably well, scoring 12 goals and providing 5 assists, in doing so making him the second top-scoring midfielder in FPL.

Now Son departs for the Asian Cup, yet again leaving a gulf of attacking threat which must be filled by someone. Enter Richarlison (£6.9m).

The Brazilian midfielder seems to be over his confidence lull, returning an amazing 41 points in the last five Gameweeks (8.2 points per game). According to Opta Player Heatmaps, he has racked up 1.17 big chances per 90 this season (ranking him 5th best of all players).

At less than 9% owned, Richarlison could be a great replacement for Son while the South Korean is away on international duty.

FWD: Raúl Jiménez

  • Cost: £5.2m
  • Selected by: 1.6%
  • Next Fixture: CHE (a)

Jimenez profile

If you set aside his red card in Gameweek 17 – and the subsequent absences due to suspension – Raúl Jiménez (£5.2m) has been doing very well of late. Excluding Gameweeks 17-19, when Jiménez was suspended, the Mexican international has scored 29 points in his last three appearances (a whopping 9.6 points per game!).

An away match to Chelsea is not the best fixture on paper, but the London team has conceded 11 goals since Gameweek 14 and have only kept one clean sheet in that time.

Fulham Fixtures

Looking a little further ahead, Fulham’s fixtures look nice in the short-term. After Chelsea, they face Everton, Burnley, and Bournemouth with two of those fixtures at home.

By Matt Whelan

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